Prediction Based On The Analysis And Scenes Of Urban Expansion Of The Sleuth Model

Since the Reform and Opening, especially from the beginning of 1990s, the Chinese cities had experienced a rapid urban growth under the stimulation of rapid economic growth.The urban growth had remarkly promoted the economic growth on the one hand, meawhile, the problems of resources, environmental and ecological which brought by urban growth had seriously restricted the sustainable development of these areas.As the front of the Reform and Openning, the urban growth of Pearl River Delta had attracted more and more people's attention.It was necessary to understand and capture the characteristics of urban growth, since it could not only provide the new method and way for the urban researchers, but support the decision for urban decision-makers, that would promote the healthy and sustainable development of the urban areas.This paper selected the Houjie town of Dongguan city as its study area.It acquired the input datas of SLEUTH model derived from four periods TM/ETM+ images, DEM data and vector data by the data processing and spatial analysis methods in GIS and RS, and then obtained the best parameters of thestudy area by excuting the calibration mode of SLEUTH model. By analyzing the best parameters, the historical trend and characteristics of urban growth of the study area were captured, and then three different prediction scenarios were built to simulate the future urban growth.It would provide the necessary information supports for the reserachers and decision-makers through the analysis of the prediction results under different scenarios.The results showed that:(1) The study area had experienced a rapid urban growth from the year of 1990 to 2003 around the existing urban center and roads with the lower restrict of terrain factors.(2) Under the historical scenario, the study area will keep on the urban growth in future, but the rate will low down.The main reason was attributed to there were no more land resources for urbanizing after the amount occupancy in the early expansion period.The results of prediction under the LS scenario showed that it would saved great more land resources than the historical scneario.Under the TR scenario, the effects were not so obvious, though it saved certain land resources at the beginning of prediction, the rate of growth would accelerate in future, and the urbanzation degree of historical and TR scenario were most equal to each other in 2030.These results showed that, in the Pearl River Delta area under the rapid urban growth, it wouldn't acquire the significant effects to control the urban growth rate and guide the healthy development by strengthening the restrict of natural factors such as terrain.To avoid occuping excessive land resources and promote the sustainable development of urban area, it must strengthen the protection of land resources.The relative advises were also proposed at the last of this paper.