Evaluation On The Development Of Provincial Low Carbon Agriculture

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report concluded that agriculture discharge dismount of CH4 and N2O account for the 50% and 60% of the discharges produced by human activities, respectively. The agriculture sector currently contributes around 14 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions, which is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions between the electric production and exhaust emissions. Our country, under the influence of the urban-rural dual system, exists the problem of the excess of rural labors and rural population, and the lagging of agricultural development as well. On the other hand, traditional agriculture characterized by high investment, high production, and high consumption, has caused numerous resources and environment problems, directly threatening the safety of agricultural products, the sustainable development of the agriculture, and the health and development of human beings. Therefore, low-carbon agriculture is the only way to realize agricultural modernization in China, but also inherent requirements for us to effectively tackle the climatic change, to construct resource economical and environment friendly society, and to realize the sustainable development of economy. However, on the course of promoting agricultural low carbonization, it is a practical subject of huge necessity to analyze the developmental level of low carbon agriculture at present stage, and find out the principal source of carbon emissions.Based on some crucial theories like low carbon economy theory and modern agriculture, this thesis employs entropy method and the circulation formula of carbon emissions and then makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis towards the developmental level of the low carbon agriculture among the 30 provinces in our country, including the changes of carbon emissions. Firstly, according to the coefficient of carbon emissions and its circulation formula, the carbon emissions from 2008 to 2012 can be figured out. After analyzing the overall changes and its distribution rules, we may continue to find out the principal source of carbon emissions in the process of agricultural production activities and ravel out the relationship between agricultural economy development and carbon emissions. The study results show that the total carbon emissions from 2008 to 2012 rises from 203897500t to 219851500 t, during which the annual growth rate of total carbon emission, per capita emissions and carbon productivity account for 1.56%,2.55%, and 11.19%, respectively.Fertilizer inputs and carbon emissions ranks the top list among the agricultural chemicals every year, such as fertilizer, pesticides, agricultural thin membrane and diesel. Secondly, by means of the circulation principle of entropy method, we construct the assessment indicator system of the developmental level of low carbon agriculture, and then analyze the potential factors which affect the developmental level of low carbon agriculture. From the above study results, we can arrive the conclusion that the comprehensive scores of low carbon agriculture in our country is only 0.29856, and the level of overall development is under good level, except Shangdong province which scores over 0.42573. At last, on the basis of the comprehensive evaluation of the results, this thesis combines many aspects, including the carbon productivity, economy benefit, and the utilization level of energy consumption and then evaluates the developmental level of low carbon agriculture of the 30 provinces in our country. According to the score of low carbon agriculture and the level of low-carbon utilization of energy, the provinces are classified into 4 groups, that is, Low level-Low emissions, High level-High emissions, High level-Low emissions and Low level-High emissions. Thus, the result shows that 10 provinces including Shandong, Henan and Shanghai are H-L districts.11 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are L-H districts. Zhejiang, Hainan,Hubei, Anhui and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region H-H districts. Shanxi,Jilin, Yunnan, Liaoning are L-Ldistricts.At the end of the thesis, the author puts forward some suggestions to further promote the development of low carbon agriculture. First, according to the above mentioned results and the developmental level of low carbon agriculture of the 30 provinces, measures should be adjusted to the local situations, combining regional characteristics, characteristic agriculture economics and original traditional agriculture. Second, it is necessary to summarize the new model of low carbon agricultural development in our country, including source reduction model, carbon sequestration model, carbon-rich agriculture, and agricultural experience economy mode.