| Objective:Stroke is one of the three human major causes of death which has the characteristics of high incidence,mortality and morbidity. A large number of domestic and foreign studies have shown that has a link between stroke onset and meteorological factors. The temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity and other weather factors interaction leads to the changes in the weather, and the abnormal changes in the weather may be a risk factor for stroke, but the correlation between them need further study. In this study, we will observed the correlation between the number of stroke and the same period of meteorological factors in Dalian, and trying to establish a prediction equation of the incidence of stroke.Methods: We collected the new stroke patients who have treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University during September 1,2013 to August 31,2014. And collected the same period of meteorological data, including the daily average temperature( ℃), the daily maximum temperature( ℃),the daily minimum temperature(℃), diurnal temperature range(℃), the daily average pressure(h Pa), the daily maximum air pressure(h Pa),the daily minimum pressure(h Pa), daily average wind speed(m/s), the daily maximum wind speed(m/s), the daily average humidity(%),sunshine hours(h).Above meteorological data are from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System.Using SPSS17.0 software to processing and analysis the data. The number of stroke cases as the dependent variable, meteorological factors as independent variables, using univariate correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis to investigate the relationship between daily, weekly number of stroke cases and the same period of meteorological factors.Result: A total of 1308 cases of patients were included which had 1022 cases of cerebral infarction,286 cases of cerebral hemorrhage.1.The incidence of stroke was statistically significant in all seasons. The incidence of cerebral infarction was high in winter and low in autumn(χ2=9.83,P<0.05); The incidence of cerebral hemorrhage was high in winter and low in summer(χ2=11.65,P<0.01).The seasonal had no significant difference on the impact of stroke incidence no matter men or women(P>0.05).The seasonal had no significant difference on the impact of stroke incidence no matter≥65 years old or <65 years old(P>0.05).2.It had a correlation between stroke onset and meteorological factors. The daily number incidence of cerebral infarction and day daily average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature was negatively correlated(P<0.05); The daily number incidence of cerebral hemorrhage and day daily average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature was negatively correlated(P<0.01),with a daily average pressure, maximum pressure, the daily minimum air pressure was positively correlated(P<0.01), a daily maximum wind speed was positively correlated(P <0.05).After weeks by the merger, the cerebral infarction of the number of weekly onset and the weekly meteorological factors had no significant correlation(P>0.05);The cerebral hemorrhage of the number of weekly onset and average weekly temperature, relative humidity, average weekly was negative correlation(P<0.01), and weekly average pressure was positively correlated(P<0.05).3.Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the meteorological factors affected the incidence of stroke. And set up a regression(prediction) equations.The meteorological factors which affected the daily number of cerebral infarction is daily minimum temperature(P <0.05). Regression equation: Y Day= 3.006-0.021 × daily minimum temperature. Regression model analysis of variance F=5.524, P=0.019, statistically significant.The meteorological factors which affected the daily number of cerebral hemorrhage is daily minimum temperature(P <0.01) and the daily maximum air pressure(P <0.05). Regression equation: Y Day= 3.447-0.018 × daily minimum temperature-0.002 × daily maximum air pressure. Regression model analysis of variance F=9.266,P=0.000, statistically significant. After weeks by the merger, the cerebral hemorrhage of the number of weekly onset were affected by the meteorological factors of weekly average pressure and weekly average relative humidity(P <0.05). Regression equation: Y Week=-85.494 + 0.094 × weekly average pressure-0.04 × week average relative humidity. Regression model analysis of variance F=7.070,P=0.002, statistically significant.Conclusion:1.The stroke has seasonal characteristics, The incidence of cerebral infarction was high in winter and low in autumn; The incidence of cerebral hemorrhage was high in winter and low in summer.2.The seasonal had no significant difference on the impact of stroke incidence no matter men or women and what age.3.It had a correlation between stroke onset and meteorological factors. Cerebral infarction was easy to happen at low temperatures. Cerebral hemorrhage was easy to happen at low temperatures and high atmospheric pressure.3. Meteorological factors on the incidence of stroke can establish the corresponding prediction equation... |
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