A Research On The Demand Forecasting Modeling And Purchasing Management Strategy Of Essential Medicine From The Perspective Of Supply Chain

The Essential Medicine Institution has come into effect since2009in China, and all of the regions in our country have made achievement in different degree. It alleviates the problem of "difficulty and high cost of getting medical service" which perplexes the government and the masses for many years. But the construction of the supply and guarantee system in our country is still in the primary stage of development. Many problems have appeared in practice, like the purchasing process is not standard, the medicine supply is not timely, and the medical organizations can not entirely meet the patients’ demand. Actually, the implementation of the Essential Medicine Institution is a management process of the medicine supply chain. It concerns the vital interests of many participating subjects, and the specific behavior and collaboration degree also directly affects the quality and efficiency of the whole supply chain. As the purchasing management is an important step in the supply chain of essential medicine, it determines whether the medical organizations have given prescriptions rationally and provided essential medicine of high quality with low price. Therefore, to construct a reasonable purchasing management mechanism of essential medicine is the key to guarantee the efficient implementation of the institution and solve the problem of the obstructed supply chain. It is of great guiding significance to the promotion of essential medicine in the medical organizations and the perfection of the medicine supply and guarantee system.By applying the theory of supply chain as a research perspective, this paper has formed the general thought of researching the purchasing management mechanism of essential medicine via summary of the institution implementation situation on a national scale and conclusion of the predecessors’ study experience. From the execution of the online procurement in the medical organizations of Jiangsu province, some current problems in the process of the centralized purchasing management have been uncovered. The necessity and feasibility of constructing a purchasing demand forecasting model has also been proposed. Then the demand forecasting model of the essential medicine procurement can be primarily constructed by guidance of the supply chain management theory and practice. In view of the forecasting model optimization, the demand forecasting method of artificial neural network has been innovatively used, and the modeling method to improve the prediction accuracy can be acquired by simulation analysis. On the research of purchasing management strategies, the policy measures to improve the efficiency and quality of essential medicine purchasing management is proposed according to the three levels of the "purchasing excellence evaluation model", which provides strategic support for strengthening the supply and guarantee of essential medicine in medical organizations.