Effects Of Climate Change On Winter Wheat In Guangzhong District And Countermeasure

In recent years, climate change has become a global topic, and it had a great impact on agriculture. Wheat is the second important food crop in China, and it occupies an important position in the national economy. Assessment of the impact and adaptation of climate change on wheat production in China is of great significance.DSSAT model was applied to simulate the change of winter wheat at the history and future climate change scenarios, analyze the climate characteristics during recent 50 years(1961-2010) and the change of light and temperature potential productivity, attainable yield, climate potential productivity and actual production, simulate winter wheat growth period、yield and changes in water consumption in the future(2011-2030、2046-2065、2080-2090) climate change scenarios(under the SRA1B、SRA2、SRB1 emission scenarios from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) using the results of General Circulation Model Had CM3、IPCM4、MPEH5 and NCCCSM。On the basis of the impact evaluation, we try to study some adaptive measures such as adjusting sowing time, cultivating new wheat varieties and changing irrigation system.The main results of this research are as follows:1) Use of calibration and validation of DSSAT model analysis the sensitive of genetic parameters, we can identify the most sensitive parameter in wheat production based on the relative sensitivity. DSSAT model is sensitive to temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide, it can simulate the changes of wheat yield well when climate changes.2) The average maximum temperature、minimum temperature with the wheat growth period increased significantly, the average sunshine duration showed a significant declining trend, while the average rainfall declined non-significantly in recent 50 years. The light and temperature potential productivity of winter wheat in recent 50 years showed a rising tendency, both attainable yield and climatic potential productivity showed a declining trend, while the actual production showed a significant rising trend; the light and temperature potential productivity、attainable yield and climatic potential productivity are not significantly different between the ages, while the actual production show significant increase trend; the water content ratio is 0.54 in Yangling Area.3) Simulation results showed that: the average temperature will increase, the precipitation and the solar radiation will decrease during the growth season under climate change scenarios in the future; the growth duration will be shortened and it correlates negatively will decrease during the growth season; without the effect of Carbon dioxide, Water consumption and yield will decrease in irrigation and non-irrigation conditions under different climate scenarios, irrigation condition will reduce by 5.16% and 8.63%, non-irrigation condition will reduce by 9.58% and 13.76%; Considering the effectiveness of carbon dioxide, Water consumption will decrease and yield will increase, Water consumption reduce 3.99% yield,increase 20.12% in irrigation condition,while Water consumption reduce 8.94% yield, increase 20.30% in non-irrigation condition.4) In the future climate change scenarios, adjusting sowing time and cultivating new wheat varieties appropriately can improve wheat yield effectively. Delayed sowing, early sowing can increase the yield of winter wheat; if the sowing date was delayed in non-irrigation condition and sowing date was advanced in condition, the winter wheat yield would increase; breeding the wheat cultivar with more grain number and increase photoperiod sensitivity coefficient.