The Effect Of Climate Change To Growth And Yield Of Winter Wheat Based On CERES-Wheat In NingXia

In this study, winter wheat experiment data was collection of Ningxia test area, these data include historical field observed information, daily meteorological data and soil parameters data, and then, to collate the data, building a database about the growth period and yield of winter wheat, the CERES-Wheat model, which is supported by Decision Support System for Agrotechnoloy Transfer (DSSAT) from America, was related parameter debugging and validation of the model, on this basis, further to validation and analysis of the adaptability and sensitivity of the model, by a combination of temperature and precipitation, changing the data of the meteorological data in the model, then validate the model’s sensitivity to meteorological factors, also offer the basis as a model for evaluating future climate conditions on winter wheat production influence whether reasonable. The main conclusions are as follows:1、 The model is to undertake the adaptability and verification of the Ningxia area, in time, the winter yield has a excellent simulation, the normalized root mean square error of n-RMSE is9.9%, for the simulation to the growing period of winter wheat, apart from a few years’simulation of growth period days deviation is larger, other years of the trend for the simulated and measured values are consistent, this is proving that the model has good ability to simulate the growth period; in space, by taking the3sites’ data to verify, the measured and simulated values of winter wheat’s correlation coefficient R2is0.7945, and through the inspection for confidence degree of σ=0.01, output of the simulation of yield results also is good, simulation of the individual years of yield is low or high, on the whole, the error is small, overall, the model in space has a good simulation ability on the winter wheat, we can use the model to simulate winter wheat on the Ningxia region.2、 In the study of the model sensitivity, through the analysis, we obtained that temperature has a great influence on the growth period and yield, the production rate of winter wheat showed a positive correlation, secondly, water for the growth of winter wheat has played an important role, appropriate precipitation can increase the yield of winter wheat, but when the temperature is rising a certain degree, precipitation can not compensate the reduction of yield, so it is still showing a trend of drop production.3、 Though taking measure to use the site and the grid points to analyzing the future of climate change on winter wheat, under A2and B2scenarios, yield of winter wheat in different regions has increasing and decreasing, in sum, the yield of winter wheat showing a decreasing trend. And A2scenario’ decreasing late of yield is more than B2scenario, according to the different times, least decreasing late of yield is2080S, in the A2scenario, the production of winter wheat is followed as2020S<2050S<2080S, in the B2scenario, the production of winter wheat is followed as2050S<2020S<2080S.