Research On Emergency Decision-making Method Based On Scenarios And Digital Plans In Urban Rail Transit

China’s urban rail transit is in a boom period, as the urban rail infrastructure has developed rapidly. This corresponds with the lack of the operational management capacities, especially the emergency response capacity. Since the urban rail transit is gradually developing into the network operation mode, it brings higher requirement to urban rail operation security.This work is supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology:Key Technology and System Development of Urban Rail Transit Network Operational Security(No.2011BAG01B02). To solve the problem that the existing research and application of digitized plans can not meet the needs to deal with emergencies in urban rail transit, the emergency decision-making method based on scenarios and digital plans is proposed. The emergency decision-making method is based on the emergency scenario ontology model and the digital plan model. And the core of the emergency decision-making method is the scenario-based emergency disposal program generation method. This work provides a new theoretical basis for the rapid generation of emergency disposal programs. The main research contents include four aspects.(1) The theoretical framework of emergency decision-making based on scenarios and digital plans is designed. The features of urban rail emergencies and the principles of emergency decision-making is analyzed. On the basis of summarizing the existing emergency decision method and its defects, the concept of scenario is introduced to the study of urban rail emergency areas, and a new emergency decision-making theoretical framework based on scenarios and digital plans is proposed. The theoretical framework includes3parts, i.e. emergency scenario modeling method, digitization method of urban rail emergency plans and the scenario-based disposal program generation method.(2) The emergency scenario modeling method is studied, and the emergency scenario ontology model of urban rail transit is established. By using ontology modeling methods, the emergency scenario system is established from four main dimensions of event, time, place and environment. The specific meaning and attributes of each element are analyzed in detail. And by using the ontology development software Protege4.2, the scenario ontology model is constructed, and the visual output of the model is achieved. (3) The digitization method of emergency plans is studied, and the digital model of urban rail transit emergency plans is established. The main contents of emergency plans and the emergency disposal process of urban rail transit are analyzed. On the basis of exploring the method and forms to extract the disposal items and multidimensional analysis, the digital model of urban rail transit emergency plans based on multi-dimensional modeling of disposal items is established,.(4) The method of generating emergency disposal programs is studied, and the process to generate emergency disposal programs based on scenarios is proposed. The matching model of scenario and disposal items is established. The algorithm is given. The disposal sorting method based on the rule-based reasoning is studied, as well as the disposal program evaluation and adjustment method. The scenario-based emergency disposal program generation is realized.By case study of a fire accident emergency in Beijing Metro Line1, the effectiveness of the emergency decision-making method based on scenarios and digital plans is verified, thus providing a basis for improving urban rail emergency response capabilities.