Study On Prediction Model Of Desertiifcation On Oasis-desert Eco-tone And Inlfuencing Factors

Sandy desertifcation is currently one of the world important environmental issue, it hasattracted the attention of all interested parties around the world. Desertifcation is mainlyrefected in the desert environment of the most unstable regions: Oasis-desert ecotone.Oasis-Desert is a fragile ecological environment with due to congenital defciency of natural sys-tems development and human development activities, further exacerbated the contradictionsof economic development and ecological environmental protection, has become an importantaspect afecting the development of the oasis. So it is particularly important to do a rea-sonable forecast for the development trend of desertifcation. Nowdays, there are manyresearches abroad about this issue, and mostly are statistical methods. But, the are fewstudies about desertifcation in diferential equation area.In this paper the oasis-desert ecotone desertifcation prediction model was analyzedand based an the analysis, desertifcation prediction model was improved, and given thequalitative analysis of the model. A diferential model for predicting desertifcation waspresented and verifed using Niya oasis as an example. The fourth order Runge-Kutta schemewas applied to the model. On the factors of land desertifcation, established a specifc modeland given it’s stability analysis.Provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of appropriatepolicies to solve this environmental problem.The main content of this article can be summarized as follows: Section1is preface. weexplain the seriousness of desertifcation,introduce study conditions.In section2, we give construct of the predicting model, at the end of this section givequalitative analysis.In section3, we give model validation using Minfeng Oasis as an example.In section4, give the study of the desertifcation factors and it’s stability analysis.In section5, give conclusion for the thesis.