Research On Earl Warning Of Mass Unexpected Incidents Based On Scenario Analysis

The early warming of mass unexpected incidents is the demand on constructing a harmonious society and maintaining social stability. As forewarning of mass unexpected incidents are not significant and prominent, and the social losses are also inestimable. Therefore, it is very necessary to use the scientific method to research the early warning management of mass unexpected incidents. As the most important step of the emergency management, early warning is the particular method for the prevention and control of mass unexpected incidents. Before the eruption of an incident, real-time monitor in the scope will help us to detect the risk factor and take timely preventive measure, so as to curb the destructive power of the incident. In this study, we choose the incidents which from2008to2011as the basis of the assumption of mass unexpected incidents. And then we use the case of "Lanzhou military vehicle was overturned" to research the early warning of mass expected incidents. The main contents of this paper are as follow:Firstly, define the mass expected incidents and proposed the assumptions of mass expected incidents, then we extracted the characteristic concepts and key elements.Secondly, the scenario domain analysis of mass unexpected incidents includes two aspects:one is classifying the scenarios of incidents in terms of Thermodynamic entropy theory; the other is constructing the path map of the scenarios which based on PSR model.Thirdly, in order to achieve the early warning of mass unexpected incidents, we use Bayesian network to make inference and transmission of incidents’scenarios.Lastly, use scenario analysis to make an empirical research of the case "Lanzhou military vehicle was overturned", and then proposed some measures and suggestions about early warning of mass unexpected incidents.