WuYunliuqi is the theory of Chinese medicine which emphasis the relationship between weather and epidemic diseases. This doctrine uses the overall concept as the guide that man and nature are corresponding. Based on the meteorological data and disease data in Beijing of35years, this study summarizes the theory of Yunqi associated with epidemics, and uses a variety of statistical methods for analyzing the impact of Yunqi and weather changes on the infectious diseases, so that we made a comprehensive descripition of the data in order to better understanding the WuYunliuqi theory.Objective:To explore the relationship between Ganzhi Yunqi and some infectious diseases in Beijing and try to find some regular patterns, in order to verify the scientific and feasibility of Yunqi theory to predict epidemics.To study the relationgship between abnormal weather and some epidemic diseases so as to confirm the theory of "Sannian Huayi"and create prediction models of the diseases.Contents and Methods:Source:The data of meteorological factors in1970-2004collected by Beijing Meteorological Observatory, including the daily average temperature, the daily average wind speed, the daily average rainfall, the daily average relative humidity, the daily average vapor pressure, etc. The data of epidemic diseases in1970-2004provided by Disease Prevention and Control Center in Beijing, including the numbers of annual and monthly incidences.Epidemic diseases:Viral hepatitis, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, measles, encephalitis, pertussis, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, scarlet fever, malaria.Analysis:To build the database of meteorological factors and the epidemic diseases in six phases, and descript the weather variation and the high incidences of the infectious diseases.Based on the Yunqi theory, such as Wuyun, Liuqi, Yunqi Xianghe,"Sannian Huayi",etc, to make the correlation analysis of the meteorological factors and the attack of infectious diseases, to study the impact of different Yunqi conditions and meteorological factors on epidemic diseases and to establish the prediction models.Statistical methods:Descriptive Statistics, Nonparametric Tests, Correlation and Regression, BP artificial neural network.Results:Among the Wuyun, the high incidence of the most frequent disease is in the Shuiyun. From the perspective of Taiguo and Buji, the high incidences of diseases are more likely to occur in Shuiyun Buji and Huoyun Buji years, or in Muyun Taiguo, Tuyun Taiguo, Jinyun Taiguo years. High incidence of encephalitis is in Huoyun Taiguo, Jinyun Taiguo and Shuiyun Buji years. High incidence of measles is in Huoyun Buji and Tuyun Taiguo years. The results of morbidity and mortality of nine kinds of diseases in Taiguo and Buji groups are P>0.05, The difference was not statistically significant.Among the Liuqi, also called six phases, the year of Taiyang Hanshui Sitian, the incidence of scarlet fever is related to rainfall, relative humidity and vapor pressure in the first phases. The year of Shaoyang Xianghuo Sitian, the incidence of scarlet fever is related to temperature in the first phases, and the incidence of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis is related to temperature and wind speed in the first phases. The year of Taiyin Shitu Sitian, the incidence of measles is related to wind speed in the second phases, and the incidence of malaria is related to temperature and wind speed in the second phases. Whereas, in the years of Jueyin Fengmu Sitian, Shaoyin Junhuo Sitian, and Yangming Zaojin Sitian, the incidence of epidemic diseases show no correlation with meteorological factors.Among the Yunqi Xianghe, there are three epidemic diseases, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, encephalitis, malaria, which showed the high incidence in Tianfu, Taiyi Tianfu, Tongtianfu group and have statistically significant differences. There are three epidemic diseases, Viral hepatitis, malaria, encephalitis, which showed the high mortality rate in Tianfu, Taiyi Tianfu, Tongtianfu group and have statistically significant differences.Among the35years, there are28years which should be regarded as abnormal weather years caused by disorders of Suiyun and Sitian or Zaiquan in the last year. The study found the relationship between epidemic diseases and temperature, wind speed and relative humidity in the three years ago or two years ago. The study also established the prediction models from "Sannian Huayi" perspective. Conclusion:The prevalence of the epidemics and Ganzhi Yunqi or climate change have obvious relevance, to some extent, which test and verify the objectivity of Ganzhi Yunqi theory that benefit to the prevention of infectious diseases in Beijing area. |