The Research Of Estimation Of Water Resources In Jiangsu Province And Water Allocation Of The South-to-North Water Transfer Benefited Areas In Jiangsu Province

Water resource is the basic natural resource of state construction and the strategic economic resource of the national construction. Water is the survival source of life of our human beings. And water is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of our society. Water conservancy department regularly makes bulletin of the status of water resources, the development and utilization situation of water and important water-related activities to the community. The above work helps to raise the governments’concern on water resources. And it can improve our consciousness of water-saving, cherish water and water conservation. With the rapid development of social economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become more and more serious and the water shortage has become a worldwide problem.The spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in our country is not balanced.In order to relieve the problem of water conflict and to solve the problem of shortage of water resources, China has built many large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects. The development of water diversion projects operation scheduling program and water resources allocation will being an important work of water resources management departments and even governments at all levels for a long tinme. A clear understanding of local water resources and water demand is the premise and foundation of estimating the amount of water shortage. And it also is the basic work of the research of the water resources allocation. This paper took Jiangsu Province as the research region. We collected and analyzed the underlying surface data, which was divided into four major categories of water, paddy fields, urban construction land and dry land. According to the different surfaces, this paper established different runoff models. We analysed local runoff of2010and2011in Jiangsu province and took the simulation data given by Bureau of hydrology and water resources of Jiangsu Province as the reference value to verify and calibrate our models’results.The simulated runoff results of urban construction land, water area and June to September paddy fields were almost similar to reference value.Mainly due to the runoff model, relative error of the dry land runoff results were larger than the other three surface categories.This paper used the index used in "Forecast Report of Jiangsu Province Water Demand"(water demand prediction index for short) and the index used in "The Eevaluation of Jiangsu water resources"(water resources evaluation index for short)to simulate agricultural irrigation water demands in2005-2012. Focuseing on the analysis of agricultural irrigation water demand in2010and2011.And we selected the results of the Water Resources Bulletin as reference value to compare the accuracy of two sets of indicators, in order to provide reference for the work of relevant departments and the allocation of water resources of the East South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The analysis showed that simulation results of the established runoff models and agricultural irrigation water demand model were reasonable. We analysed the results of2010and2011agricultural irrigation water demand simulated using water demand prediction index and water resources evaluation index. Then we found that the agricultural irrigation water demand of2011was less than2010.While the simulation data given by Bureau of hydrology and water resources of Jiangsu showed that the agricultural irrigation water demand of2011was lager than2010.We found that the paper results were reasonable by analyzing the rainfull and the rainfall process mainly about June to late August. The results simulated using water resources evaluation index were more similar to the reference value.We selected the benefited Areas of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu province as the study area. After the above models were well verified and calibrated, we established the river network scheduling model. This paper took2020planning level year in1966(P=95%) as an example to research water resources allocation of benifited area in Jiangsu province. Firstly, according to the equivalent principle we generalized the complex rivernetwork. The equivalent principle means the conveyance power of water, storage capacity and the water rate of generalized river network is similar to the natural river network.Secondly, we used "packing method" to generalize the complex water users.And we generalized the water intake gates and Water engineering and construction. Thirdly, we interpreted the water project scheduling program and established river scheduling model and simulated the water resources allocation of the research area. And we proposed solutions to solve water shortage.The results indicated that the runoff model and agricultural irrigation water demand model could simulate the practical production flow process and agricultural irrigation water of demand research area well. Due to water engineering data and initial data, the water project scheduling program and the generalization the complex river may need to be perfected,and the simulation results may exist certain errors. Results of this study provide basic data for the further work and play a role in paving the way for water allocation of the hole South-to-North Water Transfer Project,ect.