The Macro-economic Analysis Of Shanghai Based On CGE Modeling

As the major instrument for ecomonic policy simulation,now CGE software systems are almost limited in a nation home and abroad.In the light of big difference in economic and social development among regions,researching on China economic issues by different regions is more reasonable and valuable.So it's an important job to build a regional CGE system based on general equilibrium theory and used it to simulate the economic issues.According to the macro-economic characters of Shanghai,we designed a macro-economic model system of computational general equilibrium.Based on the system analysis,we build a model system which is suitable for the analysis of current macro-economic policy in Shanghai first,then develope a CGE platform based on Java which is the object-oriented language and simulate some macro-economics issues which is in people's attention with the CGE platform.The thesis is organized as follows:We reviewed the development of policy modeling and the general equilibrium theory related to computable general equilibrium model which is the important tool in policy simulation in chapterⅠ.And we discussed the closure theory of CGE model.At last we discussed the macro-economic of Shanghai to be the background of our system.In chapterⅡwe discussed the structure of the CGE model and build the model of system based on the former analysis.Having discussed the arithmetic of the model,we choose Johansen-Euler,which is one of the classic arithmetic,to solve the model.In order to solve the model we made the equations of the model linear.In ChapterⅢ,we discussed the SAM which is an important base for the CGE and constituted the SAM of Shanghai according to the principle of SAM.Then we estimated the parameters of the model with the methods of econometrics and calibration.In chapterⅣwe did some demand analysis of the system and then developed the policy modeling system of Shanghai macro-economics with Java which is the object-oriented language. Users can choose the module of the platform and then input the change of the exogenous variables. The soft can solve the model and display the results.At the same time the users can save the results to the database and show the graph.Up to now we have developed the CGE platform of policy modeling of Shanghai macro-economic.In chapterⅥwe analyzed some focused issues of Shanghai with the platform we have developed and get some conclusions.The results are as follows:The decrease of import price reduces the cost of domestic production,and the decrease of domestic price reduces the regional price by the compound price system.So when RMB appreciates 10%,the price index decreases about 1.39%while the investment decreases about 1.13%.And RMB appreciates 10%causes the GDP decreased about 4.35%.When the I&E price of grain increased 20%,the production and the employment of agriculture decreased,because the dependent degree on import of grain in Shanghai is high,and the negative effect of the increasing import price is larger than the positive effect of export.The disposable income of the urban and rural residents decreased 4.98%and 1.99%respectively.And the increasing of the I&E price of grain caused the GDP decrease about 0.198%while the price index increase about 0.76%.When the price of real estate in Shanghai increase 20%,the change rate of production of most departments is positive,especially the construction and real estate.And the demand of the urban and rural residents to most departments decreases,especially the construction and real estate. Besides,the demand of the urban residents to the rental and business services increases more. When the price of real estate in Shanghai increases 20%,the GDP increases 1.38%,the price index increases 3.43%,and the disposable income of the urban and rural residents decreased 22.13%and 8.88%respectively.The increasing of the price of water in Shanghai caused the output and the supply of the department of production and supply of water increase by the same rate.And the increasing of the price of water cause the output of most departments in secondary industry decrease,and which of most departments in tertiary industry increase.It's because of the departments in secondary industry is more dependent on water than that in tertiary industry.And the increasing of the price of water caused the GDP decrease 0.098%.The external population increases 5%caused the production of most departments increased while the regional price of most products decresed,and the demand of urban residents to all of the department increasd.The price index decreased slightly and the disposable income of the urban and rural residents increased because the external population increases 5%.The effect of the increasing of external population is positive,although it is slight.The increase of wage rate caused the output of most departments increase,rspecially the electronic and telecommunication equipment,transport equipment,general and special purpose machinery,and the effect of the increasing of wage rate is positive.The increase of wage rate causes the GDP increase 0.02%while the price index decrease 0.04%.And the increase of wage rate causes the disposable income of urban and rural residents increase 0.45%and 0.18% respectively.In chapterⅦwe gave some conclusions of the thesis and reviewed the shortcomings and the ameliorator of the thesis.