Research On System Dynamics Model And Application Of Real Estate

With the sustained and rapid development of the real estate market in recent years, the government administrative department has issued a series of measure to control the overheated investment and upward price of real estate, but the market reaction has deviated from the re-set target to a certain extent. According to the rules of the inherent and external interrelated factors, the problem of how to scientifically forecast and rationally supervise the market becomes a hotspot of attention.This paper uses systematic dynamics method for the early warning research of real estate market. Firstly, based on the qualitatively analysis of the internal and external influential factor of the real estate market, through the historical data of Nanjing market, the interrelations of these factors is simulated with mathematics formula. The systematic dynamics model is set up. Then run the model by computer and tests the validity by compare with the actual status. The following part predicts the future market of Nanjing, and adopts the comprehensive simulation method to predict the result of comprehensive pre-warning analysis. Based on the early warning results, the paper carries on the simulation experiments of the adjustments of single index and several indexes synthetically. Lastly, according to the result of policy simulation experiments, the paper proposes macro suggestions about adjustments and controls, in order to offer advice for sound development of the real estate industry.