Research On The Theory And Method Of The Security Real Estate Market Early Warning In Shenyang

Nowadays, the status of real estate industry in the national economy with its rapid development and more significant. And the real estate industry has shown a gradual shift from the golden period to the trend of silver. And the real estate economy and the national economy is related to the degree of the correlation of the other economy shows a very high degree of characteristics, the real estate economy can be very good to promote the development of the national economy. At present, the process of urbanization in our country is gradually turning into a stable stage from the stage of rapid development, the supply and demand of housing is also changed into a steady state with the transformation of the development speed. The real estate industry has the characteristic of periodic fluctuation, which will not be stable in the process of economic development. When the real estate economy has a large fluctuation, the fluctuation will have a negative impact on the national economy.In order to avoid the abnormal fluctuations in the real estate market to the national economy,the impact of the current state of the housing market in Shenyang to build a reasonable real estate market early warning system. Its specific research contents include:(1) by combining the economic cycle theory, the real estate economic cycle theory, the economic warning theory to study the different real estate market early warning methods for comparison and analysis. A comprehensive simulation method is chosen as the method of the real estate market early warning system.(2) combined with the current real estate market operation status: K1, K2, K3 and K4,,16 single indexes are selected from four sub indexes. The weights of individual indicators are determined by using analytic hierarchy process, and the comprehensive index is determined by single index.(3) statistics on the calendar year of the individual indicators and the forecast of the data in2016 and 2015 using the two exponential smoothing method. Using analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis method to determine the weights of the sub index and individual index. Using 3 Sigma method threshold division, and the single index, index,comprehensive index warning analysis simulation. Finally, analysis the future real estate of Shenyang in 2015 and 2016.