Study On Space-time Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of Human Development Level In China

Development is human history eternal theme which is enduring and the world general concern. Different times, the definition and measure gauge of development are also different. The most representative is that the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) proposes on human development during 1990s, it is comprehensive measure and study the meaning of development. This thesis use Human Development Index (HDI) to measure each province's human development in China. The paper utilizes spatial Markov chain method, spatial autocorrelation model, GIS-ESDA technology, principal component regression analysis method to reveal special evolution characters and disciplines of human development of different provinces in china from 1995 to 2008, primarily explores driving mechanism behind spatial evolution of human development and puts forward to strategies and suggestions which are useful for enhancing human development level.The first, we use spatial Markov chain method to analyze human development characteristics of different provinces in china from 1995 to 2008. The province's results show that the level of human development has been greatly improved during these 14 years, but the eastern provinces of the HDI level is generally higher than the western. In time, province's human development level has a clear convergence like club in china, form two clubs which "low level of development" and " high level of development"; in space, two clubs which "low level of development" and " high level of development" members gather together respective, form obvious east and west gathering central; in time and space, the development provinces between low and high level of development are not isolated in space, the development of the surrounding provinces will affected them obvious.The second, based on GIS's ESDA technology, analyze the relevance of every province human development level. Through the global spatial autocorrelation analysis results indicate that since 1995 our provinces human development show provinces HDI are the similar and increase aggregation degree in space. Until 2000, space agglomeration degree began to decline. This manifest that spatial gather power is abating and decentralized power is strengthening endlessly. Meanwhile, Moran scatter plot and LISA analysis results show that every province is accompanied by autocorrelation and heterogeneity in space. In addition, Moran scatter plot help to us find some atypical areas that are "high-low" type provinces and "low-high" type provinces。The third, use principal component regression analysis method, through the analysis of 1995 and 2000 and 2008 three typical year regional human development level factors, and then explores driving mechanism behind spatial evolution of human development. The result show, seven factors affect Chinese provinces and regions human development level development. The urbanization level, the second industry proportion, social fixed asset investment, business spending of culture and education and public health, per million people have hospital beds and per million people have totality of college students promote human development. Population mortality hinder human development.Finally, according to driving mechanism analysis and spatial evolution characters of human development, the paper give human development's suggestion belong that balanced development of regional economy, increase government's education investment, public health and basic medical construction, reduce disparity between the city and country, accelerate the urbanization development, make science as a whole, harmonious development etc.