Study On Prediction Of Quantity Of Cultivated Land Reserved In County's Land Use Planning

Land resources, especially the cultivated land resources are the foundation of survival and development of human society. Along with the rapid development of social economy, the area of cultivated land that occupied by non-agricultural construction expands decreasingly, and the quantity of the cultivated land decreases sharply, so the cultivated land protection has faced the severe situation. Thus, it's pressing for scientific and reasonable land use planning to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of cultivated land. The prediction of quantity of cultivated land reserved is the important component and core content of land use planning, and it also be the foundation of land management. The scientific and reasonable prediction of quantity of cultivated land can strengthen the management and macro-control of land use, provide the basis for reasonable arrangement of agricultural land and non-agricultural construction land, and it also can provide theoretical support for coordinating the contradiction of various industrial land and drawing up land use planning.Based on the theory of cultivated land protection and prediction methods of the quantity of cultivated land reserved at home and abroad, according to the data and materials collected, this study analyzed the use status, dynamic change and dynamic change flow direction of cultivated land in Enshi city, then the results showed that cultivated land area and per capita area had decreased all the time, and the main reason was returning farmland to forest, and the second reasons were adjustment of agricultural structure and occupied by construction. Then it predicted the quantity of cultivated land reserved according to the methods of food security, aggregate balance and trend extrapolation, and the research showed that the prediction results of three methods were different, and each had its advantages and limitations. So it tried to establish a composite pattern, which utilized useful information of three methods comprehensively, and gave their weights according to the reliability by analytic hierarchy process, in order to get more accurate and more reliable prediction results. Finally it predicted the quantity of cultivated land reserved in Enshi city would be 66974.61 hm2 in 2010, and be 65983.20 hm2 in 2020, the results could ensure the food security during the planning period, and meet demands for various lands, so they were reasonable. In the end, according to the land use status and problems of cultivated land use, this study pertinently put forward measures of land protection and utilization, to ensure the realization goal of the quantity of cultivated land reserved.