The Selection Of The Intermediate Target For The Monetary Policy--From The Example Of U.S

The thesis includes five parts: The first part is the leadin．this part mainly introduces the writingbackground and the writing thread．In the 1990s,U.S economy have obtainedthe best economic performance during the latest 30 years,created the longestdeveloping-period record,Fed have played an important role in the course ofthe obtaining of this economic achievement．Through a survey of the monetarypolicy of Ｕ.Ｓ.Ａ in the 1990s, we can find that its greatest adjustmentcame from the switch of intermediate target of the monetary policy from themonetary aggregates to the interest rate． This switch is considered to be themain reason that U.S monetary policy have achieved the success in the 1990s,which also showed us the importance of the choosing of the monetary policy'sintermediate target． The second part is a summary of the general theory of intermediate targetof the monetary policy．It follows this sequence that the first is introduction ofthe monetary policy's intermediate target's meaning,and then the function ofthe monetary policy's intermediate target and the criteria of the choosing of themonetary policy's intermediate target,the last one is the introduction of thesimple theoretical model,created by American economist William. Poole． The third part mainly introduces the process of the shifts of the monetarypolicy intermediate target in U.S.A．the American monetary policy show us thedifferent characteristics in the different stages of the U.S history．Intermediatetargets of monetary policy of U.S.A goes through three stages．The first stageextended to the 1970s after the warⅡ；Influenced by Keynesian theory,Fedpursues full employment as the main policy goal,intermediate target relies 46mainly on interest rate．The second stage is from the end of the 1970s to the1990s； monetarism theory beat the Keynesian theory,monetary policy finalgoal stick to the stability of money's value．The intermediate targetturn to themonetary aggregates．Fed changed the strategy of maintaining the federal fundrate,concentrated energy on slowing down the monetary growth speed,thetighter control of M1 growth,successfully lowered inflation rate in the end．thethird stage starts from the 1990s, it extended to now．The monetary policygoals put the equal weights on the economic development and the stability ofmoney's value． Meanwhile ,Fed have given up the strategy supposed bymonetarism,making money aggregates as intermediate target since the 1970s,have promoted the rate indexes in the intermediate's target system of themonetary policy．Fed have set up a system,which centralized the interest rate,including the multiple financial variables ,such as monetary aggregates andexchange rate ,etc． The fourth part is the evaluation of intermediate targets of the monetarypolicy of U.S.A；During the different stages of the economic developing inU.S.A,it is mainly the monetary aggregate and the interst rate that were takenas the intermediate targets． this thesis summarizes the suitable condition oftwo intermediate targets．Monetary aggregates,as the intermediate target of themonetary policy,is based on foundation of the monetarism theory．Themonetarism insisted that the nominal output is determined by money supplyand money demand．They thought that people's demand for money is affectedby four kinds of factors:Firstly,the total value of the wealth or total incomevalue；Secondly,the proportion of all kinds of wealth； Thirdly,theopportunity cost of the money；Fourthly,other factors．The permanent income 47have an important effect on money demand function in the Friedman moneydemand theory． therefore money demand is steady．The fluctuation of thenominal income or the price level is caused by money supply ,thus ,theexplanation of " predictable effect on goals "is finished．Money suppl...