Epidemic Trends And Prediction Of Major Infectious Disease In Tianjin City

ObjectiveInfectious disease has been a threat to human health and life in history. At present, infectious disease is the main disease that causes more serious harm to human health and death in most developing countries. In recent years, infectious diseases showed the tendency of global epidemic and spread, indicating that the control of infectious disease is the key to disease prevention and control for a long time in the future. The prediction of infectious disease should apply scientific method and base on the obtained epidemic data. It is of important theoretical and practical significance and also a task to explore its epidemic law so as to predict the incidence and development of infectious disease before outbreak, and to adopt targeted interventions on basis of own characteristics to prevent the epidemic and outbreak of infectious disease.This study intended to use the epidemiological data of 20 kinds of infectious disease in Tianjin City from 1970-2010 for analysis of their incidence trends with descriptive epidemiological method, and to qualitatively and quantitatively describe epidemic regularity and prediction of major infectious diseases, to establish a dynamic model for infectious disease prediction, to predict the occurrence and development of infectious disease, and provide evidence for developing scientific and effective infectious disease control measures.Methods1.Descriptive epidemiological method was applied to analyze the epidemic trends of 20 kinds of infectious disease in Tianjin from 1970-2010;2.ARIMA model was used to analyze and predict the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Tianjin City.3. Z-D phenomenon was employed to analyze and predict the incidence of scarlet fever.Results1. The total incidence rate of 20 kinds of infectious disease showed downward tendency in Tianjin City during 1970-2010. It was high in 70's and 80's, then became stable under 300/100000 after 1991. The incidence rate of dysentery ranked first in 70's, but decreased gradually. The incidence rate of virus hepatitis ranked fourth in 70's, raised to second from 80's until now with downward tendency. The incidence rates of scarlet fever and measles stayed in top 5 from 70's until now; that of scarlet fever showed downward trend; measles showed downward tendency from 70's to 90's, while increased since 2000; the incidence rate of influenza was up to 434.76/100000 in 70's, then decreased significantly, but rebounded since 2000 (4.41/100 000); pertussis ranked in top 5 in 80's; hemorrhagic fever ranked fifth since 80's. The top 5 of disease spectrum at all 4 periods were dysentery, hepatitis, scarlet fever, measles. 2. The incidence rate of virus hepatitis was relatively high in 80's, decreased in 90's, then increased since 2004 and reached the peak in 2006. ARIMA model is suitable for the prediction of hepatitis B due to its high incidence with non-obvious seasonal characteristics.According to fitting ARIMA (1,1,2), (0,1,1) model, retrospective prediction was performed to predict the incidence of hepatitis B from Januray,2010 to April,2011, with good effect, timely and accurate results, and high practical value. The prediction of monthly incidence of hepatitis B fluctuated from 0.61-3.71/100 000 in Tianjin in 2011.3. During 1974-1993, the total incidence of scarlet fever showed downward tendency, with cyclical fluctuation. It remained stable at 7.81/100 000-1.12/100 000 since 1994, without cyclical fluctuation.The prediction based on epidemic data of scarlet fever in Tianjin from 1970-2006 showed that the coincidence rate of retrospective examination was77.14%(27/35) indicating ZD phenomenon existing in the time series data. The data of 2007,2008, 2009,2010 were left for extrapolative examination, with good effect. Monthly cumulative percentage at the best cut-off point was 88.78 in 2010 which indicated that the epidemic situation of scarlet fever still showed ascending trend in 2011.Conclusion1. The epidemic data of 20 kinds of infectious disease are integrative and continuous. The epidemic trends analysis provides guidance for infectious disease control in practice.2. The qualitative prediction of scarlet fever for the next epidemic year in basis of historical data provides theoretical basis for its control.3. The prediction of Incidence rate of hepatitis B with ARIMA model provides theoretical basis for developing its control measures.