| ObjectiveThis study intended to use the epidemiological data of 27 kinds of infectious disease In Ningxia from 2004-2017 for analysis of their incidence trends in recent 14 years.Exploring the incidence and intensity of epidemics of key infectious diseases;Select different mathematical models to analysis and chose the appropriate forecasting model to predict trends the incidence of hepatitis B,and providing reference for the development of scientific and effective prevention measures.MethodsUsing methods of descriptive epidemiology,carried out in different seasons,different places,and different groups of people,such as the three characteristics and trends analysis of the distribution of infectious diseases,and focus on the analysis of tuberculosis,syphilis and hand,foot and mouth disease.Z-D phenomenon,exponential curve model,gray GM(1,1)model and ARIMA model were used to predict the incidence rate of hepatitis B,and the optimal model was selected to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in 2017.Results1 General trend of the incidence rate of 27 kinds of legal infections from 2004 to 2017 in Ningxia.(1)From 2004 to2017,a total of 27 kinds of notifiable infectious diseases 522,492 cases were reported in Ningxia,the average annual incidence rate is 594.45/lakh.The incidence rate showed a downward trend in overall(χ2=6114.96,P<0.001),and the incidence decreased by 19.09%in the past14 year.Among them,B notifiable infectious diseases morbidity overall showed downward trend(χ2=22211.70,P<0.001)which with a report of 20 kinds273,469 cases,and the average annual incidence rate is 311.13/lakh;A total of 7 species of 249,023 cases were reported in category C,with an average annual incidence of 283.32/lakh.The incidence of the disease increased first and then decreased and showed an overall upward trend(χ2=21672.10,P<0.001).The top five diseases are other infectious diarrhoea,hepatitis B,Hand foot and mouth disease,mumps and tuberculosis.357 deaths,with the average annual mortality rate of 0.41/lakh,and the mortality showed an overall upward trend(χ2=31.50,P=0.003).The top three causes of death were AIDS,tuberculosis and rabies.(2)According to the different way of transmission,the largest number of reported cases are intestinal infectious diseases,accounting for 44.82%,with an average annual incidence rate of 265.55/lakh.The overall wavy fluctuation was basically the same as in previous years(χ2=3074.35,P<0.001).Respiratory diseases accounted for 26.36%,the average annual incidence rate was 156.15/lakh with declining trend(χ2=13996.20,P<0.001).Blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases accounted for 25.94%,the average annual incidence of 153.65/lakh with descend trend(χ2=5131.26,P<0.001).The number of reported cases of natural and vector-borne diseases was the lowest,accounting for 2.88%,the average annual incidence of 17.07/lakh with increasing trend(χ2=10743.69,P<0.001).(3)The population distribution of the disease showed that the incidence rate of male was higher than that of female in every year,the average incidence of male was 691.26/lakh,and that of female was 495.49/lakh.The ratio of reported cases between males and females was 1.46:1,and the incidence of male and female patients was statistically different in each year(all P<0.001).The age of onset was mainly concentrated in the<20-year-old age group,and there was a correlation between different age groups and time(χ2=14776.06,P<0.001).(4)The Circular distribution analysis results of the legal infectious diseases in Ningxia from 2004 to 2017 showed that the disease has a seasonal epidemic trend(r=0.39,Z=7833.08,P<0.001),and the peak incidence day is July 17.The peak period is from May 1st to October 2nd,showing a high incidence in summer and autumn and a low incidence in winter and spring.(5)The regional distribution of disease reports showed that the top four reported cases were Xingqing District(15.40%),Shapotou District(7.20%),Litong District(7.00%)and Xixia District(6.57%).There were statistical differences in the distribution of disease among different regions in each year(χ2=21650,P<0.001)2 General situation of the incidence rate of 3 disease from 2004 to 2017 in Ningxia(1)A total of 47,779 cases of tuberculosis were reported,with an average annual incidence of 54.36/lakh,and the overall incidence showed a downward trend(χ2=32.24,P=0.002).121 cases died,the average annual mortality rate was 0.14/lakh.Cases were reported every month,and the peak incidence is mainly from January to March.Xiji County and Haiyuan County reported the most cases.(2)There were 28509 cases of syphilis,the average annual incidence was 32.44/lakh,and the overall incidence rate was on the rise obviously(χ2=165.12,P<0.001).4 deaths,with the average annual mortality rate of 0.005/lakh.The seasonal trend of the disease was not obvious,and distributed throughout the year.Xingqing District and Yuanzhou District have more cases.(3)There were 61496 cases of Hand foot and mouth disease,with an annual average incidence of 95.85/lakh,and the overall incidence rate was on the rise(χ2=14.55,P<0.001).There were 13 deaths and the average annual mortality rate was 0.02/lakh.May-August was the peak incidence,accounting for 66.14%of the total reported cases.The cases were concentrated in Xingqing district and Jinfeng District.3 Forecast for incidence of hepatitis B diseases in Ningxia in 2017(1)The Z-D phenomenon exists in the time series of hepatitis B,and the retrospective coincidence rate was 61.53%,and the extrapolation prediction results are better.Index curve model,GM(1,1)model and ARIMA model predicted the incidence of hepatitis B in 2017 in Ningxia were 43.95/lakh,50.39/lakh and 40.31/lakh respectively,the actual incidence rate was 41.71/lakh.The prediction results were satisfactory.(2)The evaluation of the prediction fitting effects of the four models shows that the ARIMA model has the smallest MER value(8.88%),the largest R2 value(0.95),and the smallest error(-1.40/lakh),which is the optimal model.Conclusion1.From 2004 to 2017,the overall incidence of legal infectious diseases in Ningxia decreased,and the most reported cases of intestinal infectious diseases.The death rate showed a wave rising trend,mainly for AIDS,tuberculosis and rabies.The morbidity of male was higher than female,and the morbidity was mostly concentrated in the<20 years old age group.Summer and autumn are the peak seasons.;the reported cases were mainly distributed in north-central Ningxia.2.The incidence of tuberculosis showed a downward trend,with a high incidence from January to march;The incidence of syphilis increased year by year,no obvious seasonal change trend;and the incidence of Hand foot and mouth disease as a whole showed an upward trend,with the peak period from may to August.3.Z-D phenomenon,exponential curve model,gray GM(1,1)model and ARIMA model all can predict the incidence of hepatitis B,among which ARIMA model has the best prediction accuracy. |
PDF Full Text Request