Research Of Predicive Model On Incidence Of Three Kinds Of Water-Bome Infection In The Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Objective Aim at the incidence of three kinds of water-bome infection and these influence factors, the more reasonable predictive model will be investigated and established, which will offer scientific foundation to establish prevention and controlling measurement. Methods Applying linear regress analysis, gray relevancy analysis, gray forecasting and time series analysis (including: ARIMA product model, simple seasonal periods model), the incidence of three kinds of water-bome infection (including: Hepatitis A, Bacillary Dysentery, others Infectious Diarrhea) and influencing factor of these disease were be studied from 2000 to 2004 year. Results 1 , The incidence of diseases (including: Hepatitis A, bacillary dysentery, others infectious diarrhea) is seasonally fluctuant-distributing form 2000 to 2004 year. In summer and in autumn, the incidence of the diseases is higher than the incidence of the diseases in spring and winter. The hepatitis A broke out on May 2003. 2,Nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen and BOD are three main factors of the three kinds of water-bome infection in the area ,according to the results of linear regress analysis and gray relevancy analysis; 3,The results of the ARIMA(1,0,0) x(0,1,0)12 model is good.The models may reasonably predict in future; 4,The gray GM (1,1) model and the simple seasonal periods model are good. Comparing the gray GM (1,1) model with the simple seasonal periods model, the simple seasonal periods model's results is better than GM (1,1) model's, but GM (1,1) model may reasonably predict in future; 5,Comparing the multipul stepwise regress analysis with the GM(0,3) model, the GM(0,3) model's MAPE is less than the multipul stepwise regress. The GM (0,3) model may reasonably predict in future. Conclusions 1,The models of ARIMA and the simple seasonal periods model can be used to forecast for these diseases incidence with high prediction of short-term series. 2,Applying the models of the GM(0,3) ,the data of the water quality surveillance can forecast for the incidence of the diseases with high precision .