| Grassland resources has played an extremely important role in raising livestock, windbreak and sand fixation forestry, soil and water conservation, air purification as an important ecological barriers of northern ecoassplot resource. Balinyou Banner Chifeng city in Inner Mongolia was animal husbandry as the main industry of the economy. The 68.53% grassplot resource provided powerful support for development of animal husbandry in whole Balinyou Banner. But the combined effects of natural climate variations and human activities that grassland degradation, desertification, salinization speeded to speed up. The contradiction of prairie area economic development and ecological environmental protection was incisive day by day. This paper researched grassland resource modification date of Balin you Banner from 1996 to 2008 with RS and GIS technology, based grassland ecology theory, grassland degradation and ecology economics theory, made use of land use quantity changes and transfer matrix analysis model to reveal motion change and rule. In addition, we forecasted 2011 to 2020 grassland area in Balinyou Banner by grey forecasting model and linear regression forecast method to grasp motion change tendency of Balinyou Banner.This paper researched changes situation of grassland in Balinyou Banner through land use change model. The result showed that grassland area was reduced 64095.67 hm2 from 1996 to 2008. Grassland utilization structure had significant difference from annual variations. Through absolute value of annual variations, variation of artificial grass was the biggest among them, was 4.9%. Annual variations of natural grassland and improved grassland were less, were 0.79% and 0.83% respectively. This paper made use of land use transition matrix to reveal that transfer destination of natural grassland mainly converted into unused land from 1996 to 2008; Improved grassland mainly converted into forest land, cultivated land, grassland and unused land, etc; Artificial grassland mainly converted into forest land, etc.Grassland quality is analysed in Balinyou Banner from grassland class, yield of grass, aboveground biomass and grass group of structure. The results showed that the first-class rangeland area dropped 10% and the sixth-class rangeland area of 200 kg/mu yield more dropped 29% during recent more than ten years. Biomass of meadows pasture without trees, dry grassplot pasture and sand ground decreased 90.94%,65% and 79.58% respectively, the structure of grass group also gradually developed to drought and inferior vegetation.The grassland area will be 617793.48 hm2 in 2020 by predictions model for Balinyou Banner grassland area from 2011 to 2020. The natural grassland area will be 511999.42 hm2; Improvement grassland area will be 75226.09 hm2; Artificial grassland area will be 30567 hm2. The factors which Balinyou Banner grasspland dynamic changes were analyzed from the natural and social economy. The result showed that the main factors what influenced Balinyou Banner grassland dynamic changes were drought and wind, the main social economic factors were unclear property right, excessive graze and slow animal husbandry labor transfer and so on. Strategy of grassland's rational using in Balinyou Banner was determining livestock grass, developing artificial turf actively and feed processing industries to further clarify property rights and afforestation.The research will provide reasons for strengthening regional Grassland resource management and promote regional sustainable use of land resource. This has important significance to improve people's living level in the pasturing area. |
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