Ecosystem Service Value Dynamic Simulation Of Urban Forest In Dalian

As the elementary producer of the urban ecosystem, urban forest plays a important role in the sustainable development of city, maintaining and improving ecosystem service function is the basis of sustainable development of city.Refered to the achievement and the practical experience of the urban forest, based on the consideration of the present situation and the trend of the urban forest, using correlative theories of urban forest ecosystem service ,this paper has studied on the urban forest assessment ways , assessment indexes and ecosystem service value in Dalian, carries through the analysis and forecast of ecosystem service on the urban forest in Dalian from the year 2005 to 2024 by the method of system dynamics, through the simulation of the model,the paper simulates the change of each parameter and the development trend of each variable.the results can provide the data for the urban forest programming,reasonable using forest resource , decision-making basis for the urban forest protect and mamage.the results are as follows:(1) Based on the existing research results of urban forest structure and value,the paper disscusses comprehensively on the ecosystem service value assessment indexes,and provides scientific and rational methods for urban forest assessment,thereby the results can provide the scientific quantitative indexes for the urban forest programming .(2) Refered to the characteristics of urban forest, the paper discusses the ecosystem service value assessment methods and indexes,and makes a quantitative assessmemg on the ecosystem service value of urban forest in Dalian. The result shows that the total ecosystem service value of urban forest in Dalian is 4.25×10~8 yuan,and the indirect economic value is 4.16×10~8 yuan, which made up 98% of the total value;the directeconomic value is 8.41 *io6 yuan, which made up 2% of the total value;The value of each indirect economic value is following,water hold 4.80><107yuan, absorbing CO2 and releasing O2 5.89xl07 yuan,rarefied air 2.13x10 yuan, the direct economic value is timber value,and the value is 8.51x10 yuan each year.(3) The paper has simulated the ecosystem service and its value of each urban forest types from 2005 to 2024 in Dalian by the system dynamics.The value of coniferous forest, broadleaf forest and mixed forest shows the similar trend, but because of the difference of forest-age structure ,the increasing or decreasing rate of each forest types is different from 2005 to 2024 , water hold value increases 12.26%, soil and water conservation increases 1.54%, absorbing CO2 and releasing O2 decreases 18.56%, rarefied air increases 20.44%, timber value of each year decreases 18.56%.The value of urban forest shows the increasing trend from 2005 to 2024 in Dalian,from 4.25 xlO8 yuan in 2005 to 4.71 xlO8 yuan on 2024,the increasing rate is 9.19%.