Water Environment Carrying Capacity In Guanzhong Area Of Weihe Basin

Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supported the coordinated and healthily development of regional social economy, but also a controlled factor that kept the sustainable benign circulation of the regional eco-environment system. Recent years, the rapid development of social economy in Guanzhong area of Weihe Basin had caused a series of problems, such as water shortage and environmental degradation. Therefore, how to deal with the relationship between water environment and social economy had become the important issue need to be solved urgently. This dissertation had studied on water environment carrying capacity in Guanzhong area of Weihe Basin, which could offer a decision support for keeping social economy's long term development.Based on systemically analysis of the influencing factors of water environment carrying capacity and obtained data, this research choosed 11 comprehensive indexes which closely related to water resource and water pollution and constructed a regional water environment carrying capacity indexes system. Then, this paper combined water resource with social economy and eco-environment to be a complicated water environment system, and established a system dynamics simulation model for reginal water environment carrying capacity using theory and methodology of system dynamics. In order to analyze and evaluate regional water environment carrying capacity, A RAG-PPE model was also developed in this dissertation coupled projection pursuit approach with the improved real coding based accelerating genetic algorithm. Two models integrated could realize systematic research and quantitative analysis of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, based on the foundation data of the water resource, water environment and social economy of 1997, and with reference to water resource development and utilization planning of Shaanxi province, this paper had designed 3 scenes according to hydrologic typical years about 50%, 75%and 95%, and 4 schemes in each scene according to different level of water supply and water consumption. These scenes and schemes were realized via setting and modifying values of decision variables. The data tables of system indexes and the change trend of water resources supply-demand, water environment and social economy of Guanzhong area from 1997 to 2020 were acquired through SD model simulation. This paper formed data sets to be evaluated and comprehensively evaluated the water evironment carrying capacity of Guanzhong area by using RAG-PPE model.Through systematic analysis and integrated evaluation, the results indicated that water environment carrying capacity in Guanzhong area of Weihe Basin was on descending trend year by year based on the current development pattern, and the economic and social sustainable development in Guanzhong area of Weihe Basin could not be supported. Moreover, based on the improvement of water-saving level and water-supply level by different approaches, water environment carrying capacity was on staged beeline trend, and the growth slowed down after 2010. Hence we should improve the level of water-saving and wastewater reusing, as well as adding water transfer projects and moderate development of local water resources to keep the economic and social sustainable development in Guanzhong area of Weihe Basin.