Study On Oasis Ecosystem Stability Prediction

As special landscapes integrated with nature and human culture in arid-region, oases are the main places for people's living and production. Whether or not the oasis ecosystem is stable will have directly effect on the sustainable development of economy and society. For recent years, because of the large-scale development and irrational utilization of resources, the fragile oasis ecosystem tends to more degrade which results in the sustainable development of oasis ecosystem. Aiming at keeping the optimal ecological service functions within the limited resources, we must study on evaluating the current oasis ecosystem stability and predicting the ecosystem response under various water resources utilization situations. By evaluating the oasis ecosystem stability, the difference between oasis development and its developmental targets will be understood which will provide useful information for decision-making departments to take effective measures for adjusting the development direct of oasis. Therefore, it is very significance for future oasis development to predict oasis ecosystem stability.Combing investigation with analysis and basing on the relative theory, this paper puts forward a method to predict oasis ecosystem stability and establish the oasis ecosystem stability prediction model. Taking GIS and RS as the platform to analysis and simulate and considering the harmonious between the development of economy and society of oasis and ecosystem stability, the paper evaluates the current ecosystem stability and predicts ecosystem tendency in future various water resources conditions of Ningxia for purpose of affording the mode of water resources utilization for the regional development of economy and society. On the foundation of image data of Landsat-TM in 1985 and 2000, this paper analysis the changes of landscapes pattern. The paper also studies the model of generalized water resources rational allocation for the damand of oasis ecosystem stability prediction. Considering the characteristics of oasis ecosystem, the principles of index system construction and available data, the paper establishes the evaluation index system of oasis ecosystem. Furthermore, combing the relative curve of vegetational coverage percentage and underground water level, the oasis ecosystem stability prediction model is established...