Evaluation Of Fragile Environment And Study Of Typical Region

Fragile environment is a kind of ecology region, which is sensitive to outside disturbance. Its ecological stability is relatively worse and its ecological environment is apt to develop to the direction that is not good to use for mankind, and under existing economy and technology, the negative development trend can not be controlled. The inside instability and the sensitivity to the outside disturbance are the two main characters.Based on the comprehension of connotation of fragile environment, the thesis establishes the fragile environment evaluation index system, including five subsystem: resource and environment factors, economic development factors, economic substitute ability factors, factors of contact with other regions, social development factors. Using clustering analysis, making five subsystems and total index system as clustering variable, classifies the fragile environment of fifteen states in Xinjiang. Secondly, using fuzzy math idea, making nation criterion as reference, calculates subordinative degree to different stability of fifteen states. Finally, taking Hetian area as typical region, based on the frangibility classification and evaluation consequence, discusses its frangibility. Using fractal theory, calculates the ecological carrying capability and ecological resilience of ten years from 1993 to 2002.Here are the main conclusions of this thesis:(1) From the clustering analysis, whether make five subsystems or total index system as clustering variable, the general rules are northern Xinjiang is superior to southern Xinjiang, large cities are superior to small cities. Northern Xinjiang has position superiority, and better combination of nature environment and resource, so, ithas high level of social and economy development. Southern Xinjiang is not only inferior in nature condition, but also in position. Eastern Xinjiang is inferior in nature environment, but has advantages in position and resources, the development of social and economy is higher.(2) According to the frangibility evaluation of fifteen states in Xinjiang, the fifteen states of Xinjiang are classified as five categories: stability, including Urumqi, Shihezi, and Karamay city, there subordinative degree to quite stabilization is higher than other four conditions, gentle fragility, including (?)i area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility is 0.373; middle fragility, including Changji, Bazhou, Tacheng, Hami, Bortala state, Altay, Turpan area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility are between 0.4 and 0.5; serious fragility, including Aksu area, kezhou, kashi area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility are between 0.6and 0.8; extreme fragility, including Hetian area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility is 0.889.(3) The change of ecological carrying capability from 1993 to 2002 in Hetian area is divided into three phases: from 1993 to 1999 is decreasing, from 1999 to 2002 is increasing slowly. There is a wave crest in 1994. The total trend is decreasing.(4) The change of ecological resilience from 1993 to 2002 in Hetian area is divided into two phases: from 1993 to 1995 is declining, from 1995 to 1999 is increasing slowly, from 1999 to 2002 is decreasing rapidly. There is a wave crest in 1999. The total trend is decreasing.(5) As for stability regions, they must control population, basing on using nature resource reasonably and protecting nature environment, expedite economy development. And expiate environment by economy, invest much more in environment protection.(6) As for gentle fragility regions, improve agriculture technology, save irrigating water, improve the utilization of farmland. Making use of advantages of nature sight, strengthen the intensity of tour industry development, reduce thedependence of GDP to the first industry, enthence economic subtitute ability.(7) As for middle frangibility regions, economic development and environment protection must be together. For the regions which are mainly in resource exploitation, carry on resource sustainable development. For the regions of making first industry as the chief, develop eco-agriculture, adjust industry structure properly, enlarge the proportion of the third industry which consume resources less.(8) As for serious frangibility regions, expedite the development of economy in the range of ecological carrying capability, improve the utilization of water resource and land resource, plant trees and turn farmland into forest and grassland, hold water, conserve soil, improve fragile environment.(9) As for extreme fragile regions, the first is to develop economy energetically, invest much more in basic establishment, strengthen economic corporation with northern Xinjiang. Through advanced science and technology, change extensive resource use, and protect environment.