Establishment And Application Of Dominating Mould's Predictive Models Of Jinhua Ham During Shelf-life

The paper has accomplished research on the elementary pattern of microflora, isolation and identification of main fungal-mould with experiment material of eight kinds of JinHua ham pieces, as well as the growth change of genera during shelf-life. The purpose was to confirm the objective microorganism in growth predictive model. According to the gradual-approach method, the requirement that the genera number prevails over the whole microorganism, mycotoxins metabolizing during shelf-life, and the steady rate of being picked out, the Aspergillus versicolor has been designated as the objective microorganism.As the recommended ham's storage temperature and mould's optimal temperature range, there were five different temperatures determined to establish growth predictive models. The results showed that Linear model and Quadratic model were much more simulated the observed data of Aspergillus versicolor at 4℃ and 10℃, in addition, the latter was verified to be better than the formal. At 20℃, 28℃ and 30℃, the effects of simulation by classical Gompertz model and Logistic model had gained better results. After verifying 40 samples of growth curve by F and t test, Gompertz model has been testified as the most available model with 100% acceptance by t test and 78% acceptance by F test.The experiment compared the data by simulated with that by observed, in order to validating the effectiveness of models. The results showed that the entire validity has gained 50 %~100 %, when using Quadratic model at 4℃ and 10℃ and Gompertz model at 20℃, 28℃ and 30℃. In a conclusion, the effect of simulation of Gompertz model was better correspondingly.According to the simulate data from model, considering the facts that the condition metabolizing mycotoxins of Aspergillus versicolor was easy correspondingly, as well as the 80 % of metabolizing mycotoxins rate, I bringed forward the risk contents and the assessment future orientation of Aspergillus versicolor in Jinhua ham. The predictive models established, which were mainly adapted to simulate the biomass growth ofAspergillus versicolor but the mycotoxins, were greatly limit to assess the hazard of mycotoxins. Reasons were effectiveness and difficulty of establishing mycotoxins models, and microorganism's actual assessment that was just based on the nature of evaluate target. However, the viewpoints and conclusion advanced in risk assessment were effective and rational.