Reserve Management Of Emergency Medicine For Public Health Events In Megacities

As one of the core areas of modern life,megacities have higher population density and stronger mobility,and their international influence and demonstration effect is also more significant,so if public health events are not handled properly,they will lead to serious consequences in society,economy and people’s livelihood.Emergency medicine reserves are the essential material basis for an effective response to public health events.Therefore,it is necessary to implement scientific planning and management of emergency medicine reserves to build the foundation and guarantee for emergency rescue and life-saving,so as to improve the response speed and efficiency of major epidemics.In this dissertation,we carry out systematic and in-depth research on the emergency medicine reserve management for public health events in megacities,and carry out methodological innovation in four aspects,namely,risk assessment of public health events,demand prediction of emergency medicine reserve,method optimization of emergency medicine reserve,and facility site selection of emergency medicine reserve,to form systematic innovation results covering the main links in this field.The main contents include:(1)Based on the characteristics of megacities,a risk assessment index system of public health events covering the four stages of prevention,transmission,response and aftermath is constructed from a life-cycle perspective,and fuzzy evidence inference technology is innovatively introduced to overcome the subjective bias and vagueness of expert evaluation to form a quantitative risk assessment method for public health events.It expands the application boundary of evidence inference technology and provides new research ideas for epidemic risk assessment.(2)After a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of emergency medicine demand,the EMD-ELMAN-ARIMA(ELA)combinatorial prediction model is constructed based on the empirical modal decomposition technique for predicting the emergency medicine demand for public health events in megacities.It is an innovative application of "decomposition-integration" system science in the field of emergency medicine prediction,and provides a reference research path for the demand prediction of emergency medicine reserve based on complex component data.(3)In view of the different characteristics of the physical and capital reserve methods of emergency medicine,the optimization model of emergency medicine reserve method is constructed with the objective of minimizing the long-term average cost to the government,and the closed-form solution of the optimal allocation strategy of physical and capital reserves of emergency medicine is obtained.This is the first to adopt quantitative technology to study the selection of emergency medicine reserve strategy,breaking through the scope of the current research in this field,which mainly focuses on qualitative research such as system composition and concept design,and injecting a new tone of precision and quantification to the research in this field.(4)A site selection index system for emergency medicine reserves in megacities is established,and a site selection model based on ANP is proposed after comprehensive consideration of qualitative and quantitative factors as well as the correlations between factors.It is an innovative attempt to site reserve facilities in complex scenarios considering qualitative,quantitative and index correlations,and further enriches the method system of site selection theory.It is worth pointing out that the topic selection of this dissertation is highly prospective.Although the COVID-19 was not present when the topic was indeed selected,the findings of this dissertation are important guidance for the high-effective response to large transmissible diseases similar to the COVID-19.