Based On Analysis Of Financial Crisis On The Complexity Of System Evolution

In order to explore the evolution characteristics and the evolution paths of international financial crisis under the background of economic globalization, the paper accomplishes comprehensive analysis which is from the perspective of a complex financial system on financial crisis generation and exacerbation based on system complexity theory.Firstly, the paper gives the overall theoretical analysis on the system complexity of financial crisis evolution. It reveals the interaction mechanism of the financial system and generalizes the evolution characteristics of financial crisis, and thus resolves the evolution mechanism of financial crisis.Secondly, the paper studies the system complexities of financial crisis generation according to the example analysis of the subprime mortgage crisis in United States. Based on the data of American Stand and Poor500index from year1987to year2009, the paper verifies the diffenrent characteristics of the system evolution in the three periods of the financial crisis, which were called "pre-crisis","subprime mortgage crisis" and "financial crisis", by tests on both of system nonlinearity and fractal and calculation of fractal dimension. Thus the paper validates the system evolution dynamic complexities of financial crisis generating and outbreak by the empirical analysis.Thirdly, the paper establishes a nonlinear small open economy system based on the product markets equilibrium and financial markets equilibrium with gradually adjusting nominal exchange rates and prices in crisis period. Then it discusses the dynamic natures of two scenarios of successful and failed currency peg at lower or higher interest rate elasticity of the aggregate investment correspondingly in the case of partial liability dollarization. According to the empirical analysis of short-term policy effects of decreasing interest rate policy and financial aid policies in China in the recently international financial crisis, the paper verifies the policy efficiency and the succesful model appplication.Finally, the paper elaborates the development trend of the financial markets globalization during the post-financial-crisis period and further explores the financial evolution risks in economic system. The paper also gives a one-side analysis of the current economic and financial situations in China to propose the appropriate preventive measures briefly.