Study On Evaluation And Predictive Of Forest Ecosystem Service Values For Jilin Forest Industry Group

Forest ecosystem had a decisive influence on land ecological environment, which was a kind of natural ecological system of largest area of terrestrial ecosystem, the most complex composition structure, high biomass, the most complete, most adaptable. Forest ecosystem was the important sources of ecosystem services, but also to achieve the unity of environment and development the key. Due to insufficient understanding of forest ecosystem and protection consciousness was not strong for a long time. People developed economy at the expense of the excessive consumption of forest resources. This caused serious damage to the forest ecological system, the global ecological environment worsening. In order to improve the consciousness of environmental protection, clear about the ecological principal position of forest system, and clear forest management goals in Jilin forest industry group. This study dynamically evaluated and predicted to forest ecosystem service values in Jilin forest industry group. In order to carry out the sustainable development of forest ecological system in Jilin forest industry group.This study mainly adopted the following method. (1) System analysis method. This method summarized the forest ecosystem services type in Jilin forest industry group, and screened method and indexes system. (2) Factor analysis. By using the model to evaluate forest ecosystem services value in Jilin forest industry group, this method designed with factor analysis to get the forest ecosystem services value evaluation model. (3) System dynamics simulation technology, study simulated to predict the forest ecosystem service values in Jilin forest industry group, using system dynamics simulation model.The main content of the study included the following aspects. First of all, the study of forest ecosystem service values in Jilin forest industry group by constructing the index system of 6 secondary indexes,16 three-level index. Second, study analyzed ecosystem services of converting and value in 2008 and 2013 forest inventory data, which had included accumulation of water conservation, soil conservation, purifying atmosphere, Farmland/pasture protection, biodiversity maintenance and carbon release oxygen, in Jilin forest industry group. Third, this study designed for forest ecosystem services value evaluation model, and it was used to evaluate forest ecosystem services value in Jilin forest industry group. Finally, study predicted what scheme of forest ecosystem services value was the maximum in the future by building mathematical model of system simulation.The main conclusions included following several aspects. (1) Forest ecosystem service values of 55.757 billion yuan in 2013 and 37.438 billion yuan in 2008 in Jilin forest industry group. Service value increased by 18.319 billion yuan in 2013 compared with 2008. Belong to purify the atmosphere environment service value growth was most obvious. (2) The soil conservation service value decreased, carbon sequestration oxygen service value did not change, the rest of the ecosystem services value has increased, with purifying atmospheric environment was the most important service value growth, in the unit of forest ecological service value. (3) This study based on system dynamics theory and method predicted forest ecosystem service values in Jilin forest industry group. The results showed that forest ecosystem service values were increased along with the time in forest industry Jilin group under the different schemes. Jilin forest industry group should choose can provide the largest forest ecosystem service value of the solution, which can maintained annual afforestation area of natural forest protection project and adopted measures to ban.