Techno-Economic Evaluation On High-Density Dwarfing Cultivation Pattern Of Apple In China

After the reform and opening up policy have been implemented, China’s apple industry experienced a rapid growth in cultivated and output area. It has basically completed an acreage-based expansion phase, and both of variety structure and regional distribution optimization have also been completed. It is now entering into a new intensive development phase, which focuses more on improving fruit quality, enhancing efficiency of orchard management, as well as improving comprehensive competitiveness of entire industry. Apple industry in China is now experiencing a cultivation pattern change, which transits from low-density vigorous stock cultivation pattern(hereafter called LDVSCP) to high-density vigorous stock cultivation pattern(hereafter called VIGOROUS PATTERN), and finally to high-density dwarfing cultivation pattern(hereafter called DWARFING PATTERN), and an operation pattern change, which transits from an extensive operation pattern with low scientific contents to an intensive operation pattern with relatively high scientific contents. However, it is widely believed that China’s apple industry is now entering into a bottleneck and critical period of industrial transformation. Especially since entering the new century, the cyclical and seasonal shortage of rural labor force is prominent, land rent and other traditional input factors’ prices keep on rising, while the marginal contribution rate of traditional input factors on output growth is gradually decreasing. As for apple industry development, production factor resources will become more and scarcer. The constraints of resource endowment will become more and more stringent, inducing a driving force change from traditional factor inputs of land, labor, and materials to technological progress, further inducing the cultivation pattern and the operation pattern change.Both of theoretical researches and practical experiences have showed that DWARFING PATTERN, as an advanced apple cultivation pattern and orchard management pattern, has the advantages of technical simplification, saving labor input, and facilitative to use mechanical equipment, and has been widely applied and promoted in the world’s main apple production countries. However, in the context of rural land collective ownership and land contracted right difficult to circulate, abundant rural labor force and relatively low labor price, slow technical progress and inadequate human capital investment, after 70 years extension in China, DWARFING PATTERN apple cultivated area accounts for only approximately 10% of total cultivated area(National modern apple industry technology system, 2014), hardly replacing LODVSCP and VIGOROUS PATTERN. Since 2007, the central government has made clear that farmers’ land contracted management rights last permanently, and both central and provincial governments have made hard efforts to farmland right registration and land contracted right circulation, the markets for land contracted rights and use rights have been undergoing an accelerating development period. Meanwhile, rural labor force turned into non-agriculture fields, and rural labor price rose rapidly and continuously. Price of other input factors such as seedling, fertilizer, pesticide and irrigation, rose rapidly and continuously, too. Under this market context, both LDVSCP and VIGOROUS PATTERN face a competitive status of high cost and low efficiency, so DWARFING PATTERN has gained an intensive attention from apple technological community and governments at all levels. However, field surveys discovered that in the extension process of DWARFING PATTERN cultivation system and operation pattern, although technological community and government are positive, apple growers are still hesitant and reluctant to accept this new pattern, the progress of the DWARFING PATTERN and relevant technological pattern extension is rather slow. Is it because factor scarcity induced change law can’t play an effective role in a stagnant market of agricultural production factor, then leading to distorted behavior of apple growers in technological selection? Or does the policy orientation of government-led agricultural technological extension system deviate from market discipline and technological preferences of apple growers? Or does DWARFING PATTERN have no comparative advantage in efficiency and effectiveness, leading to difficulty in adoption by apple growers. It is an important issue worthy of further study.To address above questions, based on factor endowment theory and induced technological change theory, and applying both normative and empirical analysis, this study probes into the root causes of the slow development of DWARFING PATTERN in China. Specifically, this study analyzes the apple cultivation technology changes induced by resource and factor endowment constraints, and the corresponding institutional investments, using survey data collected from 635 apple planting households of 15 apple planting demonstration counties in major apple production advantage regions all over china.The main research contents of this thesis include:Chapter 1, Introduction. In an overall view, this chapter firstly elaborates the research background, research significance and research purpose. Then it detailedly reviews on related literatures and theories about dwarfing rootstock cultivation system and technological patterns, relevant agricultural technical and economic evaluation, and highlights on research dynamics of apple industrial economic evaluation in China and abroad. Finally, it makes clear the research routes, research methods, sampling methods, data acquisition methods, and possible innovations of this thesis.Chapter 2, Concepts Definition and Theoretical analyses. This chapter takes DWARFING PATTERN as the research object, combines the theory of induced technology change, innovation theory with technical and economic evaluation of apple cultivation technology progress. Based on concepts clarification and analyses of cultivation pattern, stock-fringe combination, dwarfing cultivation, vigorous stock cultivation, and cultivation density, this chapter elaborates on the definition, features and characteristics, classification methods and typical types of DWARFING PATTERN; Exogenous and endogenous systems and factors which have impacts on promotion and performance of DWARFING PATTERN; Performance measurement methods and models of DWARFING PATTERN extension; building a theoretical analysis frame for technical and economic evaluation on high-density dwarfing rootstock apple cultivation technology.Chapter 3, Te Evolution Rules and Technological Change Tendency of Apple Cultivation Institution in China and Abroad. Apple cultivation institution has a dominant impact on apple cultivation pattern, technology selection pattern and production efficiency. The apple cultivation institutions in developed countries of apple industry have experienced profound changes, and adopting DWARFING PATTERN is an overall development direction. This chapter elaborates and analyses the development and transition process of several typical countries’ apple cultivation institutions and technological evolution, summarizes rules and common features therein, and puts forward precious empirical models and practices. Then this chapter systematically analyses the evolution process and technological change tendency of China’s apple cultivation institution, taking induced technological change theory as a guideline, summarizes evolution rules and characteristics in the process of the transition from VIGOROUS PATTERN to DWARFING PATTERN, pinpoints on main problems therein.Chapter 4, Comparative Analysis on the Demand Features and Impact Factors of VIGOROUS PATTERN and DWARFING PATTERN on Input Factors. Applying factor demand model and using the survey data collected from 612 apple planting households in 7 major apple production provinces, the impacts of VIGOROUS PATTERN and DWARFING PATTERN on factor inputs demand are estimated and comparatively analyzed. The results show that compared with vigorous stock cultivation pattern, DWARFING PATTERN could improves fruit quality and saves the labor input effectively, but requires more farmyard manure, mechanical power, fertilizer. Thus, the government should gradually promote DWARFING PATTERN in suitable production regions, speed up the research and development of applicable machinery and equipment, establish corresponding scientific management system, and finally accelerate the process of transformation and upgrading of apple industry, establish an apple industry system with a high international competitiveness.Chapter 5, Evaluation on Efficiency of Traditional Cultivation Patterns and DWARFING PATTERN. This chapter calculates the cost structure, output structure, input-output ratio, factors intensity and factor elasticity of above two patterns respectively, and compares their economic efficiency. The results show that DWARFING PATTERN can be classified into capital-intensive pattern, and its substitution effect of capital for labor is significant. Meanwhile, in the cost structure of DWARFING PATTERN, both fixed cost and variable cost of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, bagging, machinery depreciation and fuel inputs are significantly higher than VIGOROUS PATTERN.Chapter 6, Evaluation on Technical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency and Total Factor Efficiency of VIGOROUS PATTERN and DWARFING PATTERN. This chapter applies DEA-Malquist index to measure the technical efficiency, scale efficiency and total factor efficiency of VIGOROUS PATTERN and DWARFING PATTERN. The results show that the technical efficiency, scale efficiency advantages of dwarfing rootstock cultivation are not fully demonstrated, and the total factor productivity change of above two patterns both stem from combined effects of technology progress, technical efficiency and scale efficiency changes. The total factor productivity changes of above two patterns show a fluctuated growth curves, and both productivities fall short of their respective frontiers. Further on, the regression results of Tobit model show that apple planting household’s technical efficiency is influenced by education degree of household head, technical training, household status background, fragmentation degree of apple orchard, and non-farm labor quantity.Chapter 7, Assessment on Regional Differences in Scale Efficiency of DWARFING PATTERN. This chapter evaluates on economic efficiencies of DWARFING PATTERN in the Loess Plateau advantage region, the Bohai Bay advantage region and the Yellow River abandoned course advantage region, based on sample analysis of these three regions, and then analyses economic efficiencies of different planting scales. The results show that economic efficiency of DWARFING PATTERN varies significantly among different planting regions, with the Loess Plateau advantage region having highest profit. From the perspectives of geographical location and climatic condition, these three regions are all suitable regions for apple planting, but their fruit quality varies significantly. Orchard scale economy is very significant, and orchard size impacts on economic benefits of DWARFING PATTERN significantly.Chapter 8, Conclusions and Suggestions. The primary conclusions suggest that under current development phase and development level, the technological advantages of DWARFING PATTERN haven’t been fully exploited. Although it can significantly save labor and land inputs, it demands more capital and machinery input than traditional cultivation patterns, and requires higher comprehensive ability from individual grower. These are the roots causes for the slow progress of the DWARFING PATTERN extension. To propel apple industry transformation and upgrading in China, it is necessary to promote high-density dwarfing rootstock cultivation institution and technological pattern, especially relying on apple advantage regions, taking measure such as nurturing agriculture input factor markets, speeding up R&D of feasible machineries and technical equipment, improving scientific management system of DWARFING PATTERN, etc.