A Study On Relationship Reliability Of B To C Customer In Retail Enterprises

Along with the increasing market competition, Customers Relationship Management has being become the strongpoint of enterprises. However, there are many cases of inefficient application (especially in retail enterprises). Among the unsuccessful reasons, the most basic reason is that there are less effective theoretic guidelines of the BtoC customer relationship management.There were many obvious deficiencies in the customer loyalty theory generally used at present while it was put into practice in the BtoC customer relationship management. Firstly, the uncertainty of customer relationship under the competitive market condition was neglected. Secondly, the essential investment in the competition of retaining customer relationship was ignored, so the more incomes were not equal to the thick profits. Finally, the dynamic characteristic of BtoC customer relationship was belittled, that is to say, the future state of the customer relationship is unsteady, "loyal- customer" may also be "lost".Because there is the inherent uncertainty in the BtoC customer relationship, when the management theory should be chosen, if the essential connotation of customer relationship has been confused, the characteristic difference of BtoC customer relationship with BtoB customer relationship has been neglected, and if some management theories of customer relationship summarized by the BtoB setting was being simply stereotyped, as a result, the strategy invalidation of customer relationship management took place.Consequently, in order to resolve the problem of decision-making for retaining BtoC customer relationship under the uncertain condition, the conception of customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward by means of the uncertain theory application. In research methodology, qualitative and quantitative analysis has been used in this dissertation such as mathematics models (stochastic model, statistics model and decision-making model), writing program (Matlab), tool software(SPSS)...etc.. As viewed from retail enterprise, with the method of empirical analysis and case study used, the theory of customer relationship reliability and its usage were discussed thoroughly.The innovative results are as follows:1. With the application of the uncertain theory methodology, the invalidation reason of the loyalty theory applied to the BtoC customer relationship management is analyzed.While the essential connotation of customer relationship and the subjective intention of customer relationship management were analyzed, three aspects of uncertainty were described such as exterior market environment, customer demand, enterprise capability, and four characteristics of uncertainty were depicted such as stochastic, fuzzy, gray, mutation. While the structure model of principal-agent for the customer relationship management was described, the applicability of customer loyalty theories for the BtoC customer relationship management in retail enterprises was analyzed, and then, it was summarized that the customer loyalty theories would not adapt to the management of BtoC customer relationship.2. With the application of the game analysis methodology, the dynamic game model of the BtoC customer relationship was founded, and its evolvement law was discovered.With the method of the dynamic game analysis was lead, the dynamic game model of the customer relationship evolvement was founded, and the strategy choice and the expectant income of customer or enterprise in the process of keeping the relationship were described, and the fact was clarified that a long-term customer's relationship not necessarily can bring enterprise big profits. It was a good explaining for the phenomenon of the customer's "loyalty" or "churn", and the law of the BtoC customer relationship evolvement was discovered.3. The conception of the customer relationship reliability and its measure model were put forward, and the models of customer classification and relationship maintenance decision-making were given.It is the possibility expressed by the conception of the customer relationship reliability that customer could buy the enterprise's products in the continuous period of keeping the natural relationship with the enterprise, in the provision period and in the certain condition of customer relationship maintenance, the factors of the market competition environment and the enterprise product attraction weakening were taken into account contemporarily.The reliability measure model could be divided into the individual customer relationship and the community customer relationship system. In the aspect of individual customer relationship, with the adoption of the research result of the NBD/Pareto model, the possibility of individual customer purchase behavior taking place was depicted; In the aspect of the community customer relationship system, it was described as K/N system state (the state of partial customer relationship invalidation), and the reliability calculation model of the community customer relationship system was established by means of the probability iterative method, the circumstance of the customer relationship was opened out completely, and the credible foundation was offered for the BtoC customer relationship maintenance.Based on the calculation of the relationship reliability level and reliability attenuation speed, the dividing line both horizontal and vertical were built up, the customer classification model based on the customer relationship reliability was established. Corresponding with the customer classification, some validation strategies of customer relationship management were introduced.The decision-making model of customer relationship maintenance based on the dynamic reliability was put forward by this paper, with the precondition of preserving the enterprise strategic demand and maintaining some number of customer relationship not only reliable but also efficient, a optimal project of customer relationship maintenance can be looked for in order to minimize the maintenance cost. If that is truth, retail enterprise can be able to manage the BtoC customer relationship dynamically, and can keep the balance between the enterprise economy ability and reliable customer number.