Research On Driver Route Choice Behavior In The Presence Of Information And Dynamic Guidance Model

In urban traffic network, how traffic information influences the change of traffic flow is a very complex dynamic process. Traffic flow is formed of individual drivers/travelers. Travelers' behavior will greatly influence the effect of ATIS. One of the challenging tasks of dynamic route guidance system is to truly capture the drivers' response to information and its dynamic influence on traffic flow, and then make an effective guidance strategy which can meet the requirements of both travelers and traffic management department. Based on the review of domestic and abroad research, and on the basis of survey and real traffic data from detectors in Beijing, the author constructed the framework and analytic methods for the research of driver route choice behavior in the presence of traffic information. The developed models and algorithms were validated by the real traffic data. The contents of the paper are as follows:1. The author designed a SP survey questionnaire for taxi drivers' route choice behavior study and collected data in Beijing through the SP investigation. A Logistic model for predicting the probability of driver route diversion was developed; The key factors that influence drivers' diversion behavior were found based on the surveyed data; A ROC Curve diagnose method was introduced for model selection and calibration, and a relative algorithm of prediction diagnosis was designed.2. Drivers' route choice behavior model in the presence of VMS has been validated with the macro traffic flow data collected by microwave detectors in Beijing. A coding modification method for data recognition of link traffic flow diversion was developed. Considering the dynamic variety of traffic parameters, the author put forward a algorithm to estimate the vehicles' travel time and the time for whole group of the traffic passing through downstream detectors. On the basis of this, a cumulative flow diversion model as well as the estimation algorithms based on real-time traffic volume comparison and probability comparison were developed, which can provide a estimation of driver diversion probability in the presence of dynamic VMS information. Based on detecting data, a comparison of drivers' diversion probability, time and place in different information conditions was given.3. Through the analysis of cumulative GPS/GIS data and route tracks of floating vehicles in Beijing, taxi travelers' route choice preference was further analyzed. Revealed preference includes preference of using high-grade roads, congestion avoidance, route complexity avoidance, minimal travel time, travel fluency and comfort. The author discussed how taxi traveler's perceptive travel profit changes in the situation of traffic incident and how this will affect his route choice behavior. The concept and algorithm of the index of dynamic routing efficiency was put forward, which can provide a reference for quantitative evaluation of route choice behavior for travelers.4. Based on the "Game analysis" which includes drivers' individual-individual game behavior and individual-group game behavior, it was suggested that the urban traffic management needs to be optimized from the coordination of individual choice and system guidance. Considering the characteristics of dynamic traffic assignment model, the paper developed a modified general discrete flow propagation model to make traffic assignment model closer to reality. The author developed a basic model through the approach of bilevel programming to deal with the profit conflict of users and system optimization, and two flow guidance strategies: i) the coordination guidance model with changing information provision, which is suitable for normal congestion guidance; And ii) the coordination guidance model for proportional paid travelers who will strictly abide to the guidance. The algorithms based on rolling horizon approach were also developed. The simulation results suggested that the models and information strategies can meet the demands of both users and traffic managers while travelers' route choice is inclined to the direction of manager's expectation, and the phenomenon of Oscillation, the influence of the incident can be reduced and the efficiency of network will be improved. The guidance strategies are of strong maneuverability, and could be applied easily in factual traffic management.