| Water is the source of life, even more the blood of oasis. This research is fromthe Irrigation and Project Environment Protection in Tarim Basin Phase II——Waterand salt balance model for Hotan sub-project area, Water and salt balance modeling for Hotan sub-project area, and Water and salt monitoring for Hotan sub-project area. The study of the general situation and evolvement of the climate, runoff, water consumption and human activities were carried out in the Hotan river basin, based on the field investigation, the observed data and consultation with the local experts. At the same time, the supply and demand water in the Hotan river basin was analyzes and the suitable area of Hotan oasis and the area of irrigation were calculated. The main research achievements are as follows.(1) There is a warming and wetting evolvement trend of the climate in Hotan oasis. The temperature, precipitation, evaporation and humidity have a non-outstanding increase trend, consistent with Xinjang, China and global climate change.(2) There is a non-outstanding decrease trend with the period of 2.6 and 11 years for the annual runoff of the Hotan River. The floods occur mainly because the glacier and snow melt, whose total quantity are very large and flood peak are relative flat. The high floods often happen simultaneously on the two tributaries and the series of flood has the period of 3.8 and 11 years. The runoff at the upper stream of Tongguziluoke and Wuluwati gauge is not affected by human activities. But the runoff from the Xiaota gauge was slightly affected by human activities before 1989; after that, the runoff was affected increasingly by human activities and the runoff flowinginto the Tarim River decreased gradually.(3) Dissipative Hydrological model for the arid area was used for the Hotan oasis, developed combinedly by the three universities based on the characteristics, water balance theory and water cycle of the watershed in the arid area. All kinds of water consumption in the Hotan basin are relatively steady and have a non-outstanding increase trend, which can be ignored; but water consumption for evaporation from reservoirs has an outstanding increase trend because the area of evaporation is larger than before on the condition of the same water quantity stored in the reservoirs for reservoir fill-up.(4) The comprehensive evaluation index system was set up in allusion to the Hotan basin and Hotan oasis, using the method of multifactorial comprehensive evaluation. The interference intensity of human activities was calculated and evaluated for the Hotan river basin and three counties—Hotan, Moyu and Luopu by the comprehensive evaluation method. The human activity intensity has been up to or close to the upper limit anti-interference capacity for Hotan. The research approach was explored for the response of hydrological factors to human activities in the arid area, which can be used to supervise the development of water and soil resources and the ecology and environment protection for the similitude region.(5) The conception on oasis was explained and the oasis classified system with multilayer was built. In view of the requirement of ecology and environment, based on the water and heat balance, a mathematical model was set up for the suitable oasis size. The suitable oasis area is 6,080-7,690km , which is lower than the existed oasis area (8,420km2). The suitable irrigation area in the Hotan oasis is 2,200,000-2,800,000mu. The existed irrigation area is 2,330,000mu and the irrigation area planned in the future is 2,450,000mu, still within the suitable range. But water saving have to be carried out or less water shortage will affect the sustainable development of society and economy in the Hotan.
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