| Land use change is a major issue of global environment change, which is a linkage between human and environment. Human activity, especially economic activity, becomes one of principal factors for the land use changes while these change in return affects development of economy, so understanding the state and trend of one region land use change is important and indispensable for the region sustaining development.The Pear River Delta of China represents a case of dense population, rapid population growth, and rapid changes in LULC. Since the reform and opening-up of China, great changes had taken place in this delta, especially the core corridor region of delta. Just so, many researchers put their attentions to this delta. These researches referred to urban expansion, cropland loss, city planning, economic sustaining development, environmental degeneration, and LULC change etc. The emphases of researches were focused on three aspects that were LULC change, urban expansion and cropland loss. From these former researches, it can made us clearly that: urban have a high expansion speed in past 20 years from 1978 to 1997, the annual rate is 7.109%, and a lot of farmland have lost which converted to urban or other type land (Yeh and Li, 1996, 1999; Weng, 2001; Kaufmann and Seto, 2001; Seto and Kaufmann, 2000). Based on LULC change information, many interrelated studies were completed that included images classification method improvement and innovation (Li and Yeh, 1998; Weng, 2002), spatial restructure of land use patterns (Li and Yeh, 2004), using entropy to measure urban sprawl (Yeh and Li, 2001), land use sustainable development model (Yeh and Li, 1998), land cover change sophisticated statistical model (Kaufmann and Seto, 2001), economic development impact and the resolve ways to agricultural loss (Yeh and Li, 1999).The methods which were used in this research included geometrical-rectify, supervised classification, post-classification, GIS spatial analysis, Markov chain and CA model. And these methods were all mature and prevailing. At the same time, they had been applied by many researchers in many areas. The soul of these methods is change detection, post-classification. Post-classification is one of most commonly used methods in change detection, and this change detection method classifies each image and then compares the two classified maps on a pixel-by-pixel basis using a change detection matrix. This method can provide a "from-to" information for each class, but the result of the comparison is subject to the accuracy of individual classifications (Jensen, 1996; Weng, 2001). The change detection matrix is a foundation stone of analysis of Markov chain. The quantity and rate of each kind land use type increasing and decreasing are got from this change detection matrix, and at the same time, the matrix also provides each kind land type change with original data for temporal forecasting. Accordingly, a simple but effectual CA model which was compiled with C programming language was applied to forecast urban spatial expansion.The objective of this paper is to discuss the land use and land cover change information of the core corridor delta from 1998 to 2003 by using remote sensing images, GIS tools and socioeconomic data, and forecast their change temporally in next 10 years using Markov chain. At the same time, combined and compared with former study result, a detail analysis was finished in order to make the inner information clear much more. Lastly, urban expansion was modeled spatially using a CA model, the aim of modeling is to find the quantity and direction of urban expansion in next 10 years.On the other hand, this paper discusses urban expansion (from 1979 to 2003) of Guangzhou (a developed city in developing country, China) temporally and spatially by using remote sensing data (four time periods, 1979/1990, 1990/1995, 1995/2000, 2000/2003) with the support of Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Several key problems are discussed in this study, which include the urban expansion area and expansion rate, the spatial expansion pattern of Guangzhou, the relationships of urban expansion with socioeconomic factors, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and Total Product Value of Industry (TPVI). Detailed understanding of urban expansion along the urban-rural gradient provides a useful tool to compare the structural and functional differences of urban expansion patches at different orientations. In this study, the method which is integrated temporal data with gradient analysis is performed in order to analyze and compared both the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou, China. Two indexes (compactness and fractal dimension) are applied to describe the urban developing pattern in past 24 years. At the last, the influence of different type traffic roads to urban expansion is evaluated using the buffer tool of GIS. The distribution of chapters is as follows: Chapter one states the research aim, study area and data which will be use in this paper; Chapter two reviews the studies of land use can land cover in PRD; Chapter three discusses the study methods of land change detection used in this paper; Chapter four analysis the temporal change of land use including change rate, change areas and areas of inter-transferred Chapter five discusses the spatial change of land use, and analysis urban expanding and cropland loss, at the same time discuss the drive factors; Chapter six forecast the temporal and spatial change of land use using the Markov chain and CA model; Chapter seven and eight evaluate the ecological change between 1998 and 2003, and discusses drive factors of ecological change in Guangzhou city from 1979-2003.
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