| In order to further expand the level of opening up,China has more actively participated in the formulation of global trade,international investment and financial rules,and promoted the construction of China(Hainan)Free Trade Port with institutional innovation as the starting point.As a key area in the construction of free trade ports and a pillar industry in Hainan Province,the tourism industry has become an important growth pole for Hainan’s economic development,an important window for expanding opening up and an important platform for industrial agglomeration.Therefore,systematically evaluating the policy effect and influence mechanism of the free trade port policy on the tourism industry in Hainan Province has theoretical value and practical significance for the construction of the international tourism consumption center of Hainan Free Trade Port and the improvement of the development level of Hainan’s service industry.The main contents of this paper include: Firstly,by combing the relevant literature such as the policy and system evaluation methods and tourism industry development of the pilot free trade zone,starting from the "Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port",sorting out the preferential policies of the free trade port related to the tourism industry,based on the theory of free trade and institutional economics,and discussing the impact mechanism of the free trade port policy on the tourism industry from the aspects of tourism supply and tourism demand,which can provide an analytical framework for the empirical part.It will also help to provide theoretical support for the institutional innovation design of the national pilot free trade zone based on the whole industrial chain.Secondly,the C-D production function model including the free trade port policy is used to empirically analyze whether the free trade port policy has an impact on Hainan’s tourism industry.The results show that:(1)The free trade port policy,tourism capital investment and resource endowment have a significant positive impact on the development of tourism industry in Hainan Province,and are carried out according to the mechanism of "free trade port policy-improving tourism supply,meeting demand upgrading-tourism industry development",but the increase in the number of tourism employees will not bring about the growth of tourism revenue.(2)The free trade port policy has increased the total tourism revenue of Hainan Province by 107%,and there is a lagging effect.Thirdly,with the help of the idea of "quasi-natural experiment" and the "counterfactual" analysis method,the nonparametric synthetic control method(NPSCM)was used to quantitatively evaluate the policy effect of the free trade port policy on Hainan’s tourism industry,and then the synthetic control method and the double difference model were used to test the robustness of the policy effect.The empirical research results show that:(1)In more than four years,the free trade port policy has a positive driving effect on the development of Hainan’s tourism industry.(2)The net effect of the policy calculated according to the non-parametric synthetic control method is an average annual growth of 53.595 billion yuan in tourism revenue.Finally,based on the analysis and quantitative evaluation results of the impact mechanism of policies and systems,this paper makes suggestions for deepening the reform and innovation of tourism industry in Hainan Free Trade Port from the aspects of taxation,tourism industry competitiveness and construction of pilot free trade zone. |