Construction And Empirical Analysis Of Sme Supply Chain Finance Credit Risk Model

Small and medium-sized enterprises,as the backbone of promoting the development of the economy and promoting people’s livelihood employment,play a crucial role in high-quality economic development at the present stage.However,due to the industry status of SMEs,limited registered capital,simple capital structure and many other factors,the financing problem of SMEs has become an important obstacle to restrict their development.The emergence of supply chain finance provides a shortcut for SMEs to obtain loan funds at acceptable costs.In this process,financial institutions,and liquidity providers,provide financial support services to small and medium-sized enterprises based on their understanding of core enterprises and newcomers,and real trade transactions.Because of the short development time of supply chain finance in China,supply chain business is not mature.Just in the development process of these decades,there have been many credit risk thunderstorms of small and medium-sized enterprises.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to discuss the credit risk of SMEs in the context of supply chain finance.In this paper,the automobile industry is chosen to simply represent small and medium-sized enterprises,and the relevant influencing factors of credit risk under the supply chain finance are studied,and empirical verification is carried out.In the selection of research samples,this paper firstly selects a total of 89 upstream and downstream enterprises based on 20 automobile whole vehicle manufacturing enterprises.After data screening,84 automobile parts manufacturing enterprises that can obtain data are left for analysis as financing enterprise samples.Then,an evaluation system with 22 indicators is constructed to analyze the factors influencing the credit risk of SMEs in the supply chain ecology.Then,the 2017-2020 relevant data of these84 SMEs were integrated from Wind database,and the missing values were eliminated by SPSS.Finally,286 valid sample data were obtained for each indicator.Finally,principal component reduction and Logistic regression were used to obtain the regression results.The results show that the biggest source of SME credit risk is the endogenous factor of the enterprise itself;The second is the degree of dependence on core enterprises and supply chain ecology.When SMEs have a high degree of dependence on core enterprises,the operating risks of core enterprises will quickly spread to small and medium-sized enterprises,expand the credit risks of small and medium-sized enterprises,and then affect or even limit the loan ability of small and medium-sized enterprises.After the accuracy test,it can be confirmed that the accuracy of the model is more than 90%,and the empirical results are quite credible.Based on the development status of supply chain finance and the empirical analysis results of Logistic model,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for SMEs,banks and other financial institutions,as well as government and other relevant departments.First,SMEs should not only improve the quality of information disclosure,but also strengthen the connection with core enterprises,so as to enhance the loan willingness of banks and other financial institutions.Second,banks and other financial institutions should accelerate the construction of platforms.Mature supply chain financial platforms are more conducive to the control of credit risks.Third,the government can encourage the development of supply chain finance through the construction of incentive mechanism,and strengthen supervision through the improvement of laws and regulations.