Research On Driving Factors Of New-type Urbanization At Provincial Level In China With Common Factors

Traditional urbanization in China has brought about economic prosperity,but also high consumption of resources and energy.To effectively address these problems due to traditional urbanization in China,the introduction of the “National New Urbanization Plan(2014-2020)” has had an important impact.Exploring the spatial and temporal evolution of new-type urbanization and the transmission effects of its driving factors are significant for planning and guiding the sustainable development of newtype urbanization in China in the future.In addition,ignoring the strong dependence among cross-sections in the panel model,such as common economic shocks and unidentified components,leads to biased and non-consistent estimates of the model,and therefore the conclusions drawn by the traditional model are open to question.In this thesis,we analyze the level of new-type urbanization in China from three perspectives: the measurement of new-type urbanization,the global and local impact of driving factors.First,a new-type urbanization evaluation system that considers five dimensions of population,economy,space,ecology and society,by using China’s provincial-level panel data during the period 2000 to 2020,and an improved CRITICTOPSIS with added time dimension is used for comprehensive evaluation.Then the four appropriate driving factors are selected to explore their global impact using a dynamic spatial panel model,which considers common factors for the first time in urbanization problems.In order to reflect the non-negligibility of common factors and to select the appropriate number of common factors,the general dynamic spatial panel models are compared with the dynamic spatial panel models with different common factors,and the best model is selected by CD test,α test,stationarity tests,and the comparison of direct and indirect effects between different models.Finally,considering that the unbalanced and inadequate development of each province in China is becoming more and more significant,and that the driving factors differ in various individual units,the geographical location information is introduced to the regression coefficients,and the geographically weighted regression model is further used to explore the spatial heterogeneity of each driving factor on diverse provinces from a local perspective.It is concluded that the multidimensional composite indicators can reflect the newtype urbanization level of various provinces in China more realistically,and the following conclusions are drawn.First,the level of new-type urbanization in China has been steadily increasing year by year and showing obvious spatial aggregation effect,with the provinces with higher level mainly located in the southeast coastal area and spreading to the central region,and the disparity between regions is increasing year by year.Second,the common factors are essential for analyzing the level of new-type urbanization,and the model is best estimated when the common factors are the current dependent variable and the lagged first order of the dependent variable.Third,the decomposition of direct and indirect effects considering the common factor model are more reasonable to explore the mechanism of provincial driving factors of new-type urbanization,and the geographically weighted regression model indicates that there is spatial heterogeneity in the influence of each driving factor,and the effect becomes more pronounced over time.This paper provides insights from a new perspective for effective policy decisions on the comprehensive and sustainable development of China’s new-type urbanization.