Study On The Impact Of International Trade On Residence Intention Of Floating Population

At present,China’s domestic market continues to grow,we need a higher level of external circulation to promote the smooth and efficient double cycle to add impetus to China’s economic development.As an important force in promoting the process of urbanization and economic development,floating population has become an important issue.Therefore,the question of how to promote the rational flow of the floating population with the development of international trade and increase the willingness of the floating population to live at the destination has become a problem that should be given attention.First,the background and significance of the research are described.On this basis,the relevant literature in domestic and overseas is reviewed.Second,it describes the current situation of import and export trade and the current situation of floating population’s residence intention.Third,combining the push-pull theory and the foreign trade multiplier theory,this thesis discusses the heterogeneity of the impact of international trade on the residence intention of floating population in different levels of cities,different industries and different flow ranges from the aspects of city size,employment opportunities and living costs.Finally,using import and export trade dependence of 2012,2015 and 2018 to measure the trend of international trade,measure the residence intention of the floating population with the dynamic monitoring survey data of China’s floating population,and construct the econometric regression model.Logit regression was used to empirically analyze the effects of import and export trade dependence on the residence intention of floating population,further verify the difference between the effects of import and export trade on the residence intention of floating population in different urban levels,and separately test the effects of import trade on the residence intention of floating population engaged in manufacturing and non-manufacturing.And the heterogeneity of international trade on the residence intention of floating population in different flow ranges.The results show that: nationally,import trade has a positive correlation with the residence intention of floating population,while export trade has a negative correlation with the residence intention of floating population.Through the regression of cities at different levels,it is found that by 2018,the influence of import trade and export trade on the residence intention of the floating population in first-tier cities is promoting,while the influence on the residence intention of the floating population in fourth-tier cities is inhibiting.According to the regression of different occupations,with the increase of import trade dependence,the residence intention of manufacturing and related occupations is lower than that of other occupations.Based on the regression of the floating population in different floating ranges,it is found that the promoting effect of import trade on the residence intention of the inter-provincial floating population shows an increasing trend,and the inhibiting effect on the non-inter-provincial floating population also shows an increasing trend.Export trade has a negative correlation with the residence intention of inter-provincial and non-inter-provincial floating population.Based on the empirical results of this thesis,this thesis puts forward some policy proposals to develop international trade in order to promote the residence intention of floating population.To be specific,first,improve export trade structure and maintain steady development of import trade;Second,fully utilise the advantages of each region and formulate trade policies according to local conditions;Third,increase investment in human resources and improve workers’ employability skills.