Research On The Geo Risk Of China’s Participation In The "Lancang Mekong Cooperation" Under The Intervention Of The United States

Today,the strategic competition between China and the United States has become an established fact.This contest triggered by the world’s two major political and economic entities not only has an important impact on both sides,but also brings "collateral damage" to other countries.With the return of World Geopolitics and the continuous prominence of Mekong geo strategy,the Mekong River Basin has increasingly become an important stage for China and the United States to compete for influence.The United States has actively intervened in relevant affairs in the Lancang Mekong region,focused on building a U.S.-led cooperation framework,and pressed China to vigorously promote the construction of "Lancang Mekong cooperation",so as to achieve the practical purpose of weakening China’s regional influence and expanding the global strategy of the United States.In this context,China’s participation in the "Lancang Mekong cooperation" also faces multiple challenges brought about by American intervention.Firstly,this paper systematically summarizes the relevant background and research situation at home and abroad of China’s participation in the geo risk of "Lancang Mekong cooperation";Secondly,after defining the relevant concepts,this paper analyzes the current situation of American intervention in the Lancang Mekong region and the hypothesis of the impact of American intervention on geopolitical risk;Thirdly,build a comprehensive evaluation index,measure the geo risk index,and analyze the geo risk characteristics of China’s participation in the "Lancang Mekong cooperation" under the intervention of the United States from the perspective of overall regional and spatial differentiation.Finally,it explores the formation mechanism of China’s participation in the "Lancang Mekong cooperation" geopolitical risk and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The strategic "pull" between the United States and China in the Mekong River Basin is heating up.The United States has carried out intervention,including strategy and other aspects,in response to the regional cooperation strategy implemented by China,making the environment of the Lancang Mekong region more complex and increasing the geographical risk of China’s participation in subregional cooperation.(2)Under the intervention of the United States,the overall evolution of the geopolitical risk of China’s participation in the "Lancang Mekong cooperation" is fluctuating.The comprehensive geo risk shows an upward trend and reaches the maximum value of 2.0098 in 2020;The international geopolitical risk increased continuously,from 0.1121 to 0.1529;Regional geopolitical risk shows a fluctuating development trend of rising,falling and rising;The domestic geopolitical risks of the five Lancang Mekong countries constitute the main part of national geopolitical risks.(3)The spatial differentiation of geo risk is obvious.In terms of comprehensive geopolitical risk,Myanmar is the highest,with an average geopolitical risk of 0.6039;In terms of international geopolitical risk,Vietnam is the highest,reaching 0.0598 in2020;In terms of regional geopolitical risk,Myanmar is the highest,with 0.1451 in2020;In terms of national geopolitical risk,from the perspective of bilateral geopolitical relations,China and Vietnam have the highest geopolitical relationship risk and non-governmental relationship risk with China;From the perspective of the five Lancang Mekong countries,Myanmar has the highest geopolitical risks.(4)Using the factor detection of geo detector to analyze the formation mechanism of geo risk faced by China,mainly including: the international situation of geo strategic competition between China and the United States is the root factor for the enhancement of geo risk;Regional problems caused by sensitive areas are boosting factors;The geopolitical relationship between China and the five countries is the key factor;The complex geographical environment of the host country is an endogenous factor.Based on the geographical risk characteristics and risk formation mechanism mentioned above,this paper puts forward countermeasures from four aspects: strengthening policy interaction,strengthening economic and trade linkage,enriching people to people exchanges and improving governance level.