Research On Urban Traffic Congestion Management Policy Based On System Dynamics

With the continuous acceleration of urbanization in China and the continuous improvement of motorization,the structure of urban transportation systems is also undergoing tremendous changes.The increasing number of motorized trips has led to increasingly serious transportation supply and demand contradictions and environmental pollution problems.In addition,the supply side structural adjustments in urban transportation system planning,construction,and management lag behind changes in transportation demand,leading to the continuous deterioration of the operational status of urban transportation systems,the imbalanced development of urban transportation supply and demand has become a common development trend in many cities,and the degree of road congestion is constantly increasing.Urban traffic congestion control policies are an important factor affecting urban transportation,and their formulation and implementation are closely related to society,economy,and citizen life.Systematic analysis and research on them can help formulate reasonable urban traffic congestion control policies and provide practical reference and guidance for the government and traffic management departments.This article uses the theory of transportation supply and demand to study the problem of congestion management in urban transportation systems.The specific completed work is summarized as follows:Firstly,the core content of this article is clarified,the relevant theories and application methods of system dynamics are understood,and the practicality of applying them to study transportation problems is analyzed.Then,the system characteristics of urban transportation systems and the reasons for traffic congestion are analyzed,and the modeling process is clarified.Secondly,analyze the structure of the urban transportation supply and demand system.Starting from the imbalance between transportation supply and total demand,this paper analyzes and explores the connotation and influencing factors of urban traffic congestion,delineates system boundaries and analyzes system elements,conducts causal analysis to obtain the main causal chain of the transportation supply and demand system,and draws a causal relationship diagram and analyzes the system feedback loop.Thirdly,through the factor analysis,causality analysis and feedback loop analysis of urban traffic congestion system,the flow chart model of urban traffic congestion based on VENSIM computer language is constructed,and the SD model of urban traffic congestion governance policy is constructed.The accurate analysis equation is given,and the basic parameters in the model are analyzed and determined.Finally,the model established in this article is verified and simulated.By comparing the simulated data of the model with the Dalian Statistical Yearbook and relevant statistical survey data,the effectiveness of the model is tested.Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the different implementation intensities of the tail number restriction policy,bus priority policy,and congestion pricing policy.Corresponding congestion relief plans are proposed based on the degree of imbalance between traffic supply and demand at different stages of urban development.