Risk Management Research Of Construction Phase SY Cogeneration Project

Cogeneration,also known as gas-electricity symbiosis,is an important power generation technology nowadays.Compared with separate generation of heat and power,cogeneration has the characteristics of reducing energy consumption,improving fuel utilization rate,improving boiler combustion effect and reducing environmental pollution.In recent years,due to the state’s great support policy for the development of cogeneration,it has been vigorously promoted and developed throughout the country.Up to now,the heat supply in the form of cogeneration has accounted for more than 39% of the total heat supply in China.However,with more and more cogeneration projects coming to the ground,the problems of project safety and risk management are becoming more and more serious.Because the risk is sudden,it will bring huge impact and loss to enterprises and projects,and even cause a series of vicious consequences such as casualties,project shutdown and enterprise bankruptcy.Therefore,it is particularly important to carry out scientific and effective risk management research on the construction stage of cogeneration project.This thesis takes the construction phase of SY cogeneration project as the research object.By combing the relevant literature of risk management and combining with the actual situation of the project,this thesis studies the identification of risk factors,risk assessment and risk response in the construction stage of the project.Firstly,considering the complexity and multi-level of the project,the risk factors are preliminarily identified and secondarily identified by questionnaire method and expert scoring method,and the final risk factor identification list is obtained.It is found that there are 4 first-level risk factors and 16 second-level risk factors in the construction process of the project.Secondly,the AHP-CIM risk assessment model is established for the identified risk factors,and the weight of each risk factor is calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process.Among them,the four first-level risk factors are ranked as schedule risk,quality risk and cost risk.Then,according to the scores of various risk factors by experts and relevant personnel,the probability distribution of various risk factors in the construction stage of the project is calculated by CIM model,and then the weight of risk factors and the probability of risk occurrence are combined for comprehensive evaluation,and it is concluded that the project is in a low-risk state.Finally,according to the results of risk assessment,combined with the actual situation of the project,using the methods of risk avoidance,risk transfer and risk taking,this thesis puts forward some targeted risk response measures for the risk factors with the weight greater than 0.05.In view of the change of engineering quantity in the progress risk,risk control should be carried out in the aspects of selecting advanced construction technology and disclosing the construction technical ability in advance.In view of the poor quality of building materials in quality risks,risk control should be carried out in building materials use management registration system,building materials bidding selection,etc.In view of the rising cost of manpower and building materials in the cost risk,risk control should be carried out in labor outsourcing,research and development of new technology,etc.