Evolution Of Ecological Spatial Patterns And Governance Strategies In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the 20 th National Congress of the Party that the concept of green water and green hills is the silver mountain of gold must be firmly established,and development must be planned on the basis of the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.The ecological space is an important barrier to ensure the harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature,and is also a “baromete” to measure the quality of the ecological environment of a region.However,with the accelerated development of urbanisation,urban land is expanding,ecological space is being destroyed,and environmental pressure is gradually coming to the fore,thus triggering new thoughts on the control of ecological space under the new situation.At present,studying the characteristics of regional ecological space changes,exploring the influencing factors of ecological space evolution and multi-scenario simulations in order to make suggestions for ecological space control is not only the right thing to do in response to the development trend of the times,but also the right thing to achieve the harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature,which is crucial for the sustainable development of regional ecological space and maintaining the stability and security of the ecosystem.This paper obtains land use data,DEM elevation data,soil data,road traffic data,temperature data,river data,spatial interaction intensity outflow,outflow and other data for 2000,2010 and 2020 in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and combines previous research results on ecological space to study the trajectory of ecological space evolution and the factors influencing ecological space change in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and constructs an improved GFM-CA-Markov coupled model to simulate and predict the change of ecological spatial pattern in 2050,and propose strategies for ecological spatial management based on the empirical research results.The study finds that:(1)From the evolutionary trajectory,the ecological space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is mainly distributed in the western and northern regions,and the ecological space area shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and basically remains stable;the overall level of ecological environment quality decreases slightly,showing the characteristics of high in the north and low in the south,and high in the west and low in the east.(2)In terms of influencing factors,the elevation and average annual temperature of natural factors,the disposable income of urban residents of economic factors,the spatial interaction intensity of outflow and inflow factors of social factors and the urbanisation rate have stronger explanatory power for ecological space.(3)From the multi-scenario simulation,in terms of spatial distribution pattern,the ecological space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2050 is mainly located in the Yanshan-Taihang Mountains mountainous area,the Dam plateau area and the coastal zone area;in terms of area,the differences in the quantitative scale of various types of space under different scenarios are more obvious.Under the integrated spatial coordination scenario,the change in ecological space is basically the same as that of the production space priority scenario and the ecological space priority scenario,but the magnitude of the change is becoming more moderate,and this change can meet the integrated demands of regional synergistic development and ecosystem security protection faced by Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Based on the characteristics of the ecological space in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the three aspects of ecological space evolution trajectory results,influencing factors and multi-scenario simulations,strategic suggestions are made to establish a collaborative ecological space governance system,strengthen ecological space planning and control,improve the level of green innovation development,coordinate the regional development of urban agglomerations,promote the intensive use of living space in urban agglomerations,and strengthen the restoration and protection of ecological space in key regions,with a view effectively manage the ecological space of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and enhance the diversity,stability and sustainability of the ecosystem.