Research The Impact Of Global Uncertainty On The Pricing Mechanism Of International Natural Gas

Natural gas,a clean energy source,is a crucial part of the national energy strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and increase energy security.The American gas revolution,which could influence the world energy market and natural gas trade patterns,is attracting the attention of both natural gas producers and consumers.International oil prices have also been impacted by several key events.Oil prices have an impact on the economy and the price of natural gas.Thus,energy traders,investors,and regulators can reduce risk by investigating the risk transmission mechanism of variations in global crude oil prices on local natural gas markets.This thesis addresses the American gas revolution,regional natural gas markets with varying price structures,and the dynamic relationship between the regional natural gas markets and the global crude oil market.The kernel-based non-parametric method is used to examine the Granger causality of the quantile of the global crude oil and regional natural gas markets for a risk spillover impact.The severe risk of the market’s upstream and downstream is measured by Va R.The MVMQ-CAVIAR model is then used to analyze the dynamic tail dependency structure between the prices of local natural gas and global crude oil.The Wald test looks at how imported crude oil might affect the local natural gas market.The performance test in this study showed the model’s value at risk accuracy for the local natural gas market.The quantile impulse response function from the quantile VAR model,in addition,dynamically captures the severe risk spillover effect of oil price shocks on the local natural gas market.Comparing quantile levels and regional markets.The study found that the global crude oil market has had a considerable impact on the regional natural gas market’s Va R and that extreme market risk is more contagious than general risk.The quantile Granger causality test demonstrates the extreme risk spillover asymmetry between the regional natural gas markets and the global crude oil markets,with the positive extreme risk spillover effect leading.Quantile impulse response research shows that the regional natural gas market reacts to extreme positive and negative oil price shocks with unequal strength,duration,and direction.The risk transmission from international crude oil to local natural gas markets is affected by the shale gas revolution in diverse ways throughout time.According to the market environment and geographical peculiarities,different risk transmission techniques are used to the two natural gas markets in North America and Europe.European natural gas markets are more affected by oil price shocks than those in North America.