Can Dual Control Of Energy Consumption Policies Force Industrial Structure Upgrading?

Energy conservation occupies a primary position in China’s energy development strategy,and is of great significance to the world’s sustainable development.The dual control of total energy consumption and energy intensity(dual control of energy consumption)policies,which have been prioritized as core energy-saving targets since the 13th Five-Year Plan,are deemed crucial in achieving China’s "Carbon Peak and Neutrality Target" and promoting high-quality development.However,the existing literature has provided limited assessment of their policy effects.Theoretically,the policy allows for the structural adjustment of government policies and controls the excessive growth of high energy-consuming industries through special policies,thereby fostering positive effects on industrial structure upgrading.Therefore,the research provides a more comprehensive perspective by evaluating the economic effects of the dual control of energy consumption policy from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading.By conducting a comprehensive review of the evolution of dual control of energy consumption policies,this study recognizes the pilot project in Zhejiang Province as a quasi-natural experiment,thereby providing a suitable illustration for precise quantitative estimation of policy impacts.Utilizing a panel dataset comprising 283 cities in China from 2006 to 2013,the study employs the differencein-difference method to evaluate the policy effects on industrial structure upgrading.The findings demonstrate that the dual control of energy consumption policies leads to an average increase of 0.89 percentage points in the tertiary industry in Zhejiang Province,with a contribution rate of approximately 27.2% to the upgrading of the regional industrial structure within the same period.The validity of the conclusions is supported by the parallel trend test,placebo test,and robust test,which involve replacing the explained variable,excluding the interference of other energy-saving and emission reduction policies or environmental regulation policies,and reducing the scope of research samples.The mechanism analysis reveals that the policies related to dual control of energy consumption in Zhejiang Province favor the development of low energy consumption and high value-added industries concerning resource allocation.Furthermore,the dual control of energy consumption policies expedite the exit rate of energy-intensive enterprises,creating space for the service industry and ultimately promoting industrial structure upgrading.The dual control of energy consumption policies is proven to be a win-win scenario for energy conservation and industrial structure upgrading,offering valuable reference for the implementation and improvement of policies aimed at promoting economic transformation.However,caution must be exercised by local governments to avoid a "one-size-fits-all" approach for energy-intensive industries.Empirical results indicate that under the guidance of "equal replacement" or "reduction replacement" of total energy consumption,the short-term entry of new energy-intensive enterprises will not impede industrial structure upgrading.Further research is necessary to assess the rationality and effectiveness of dual control of energy consumption policies,providing empirical evidence for the exploration and development of a shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual carbon control policies.