Peak Analysis Of And Influencing Factors Of "Carbon Pressure" In China’s Energy-intensive Industries

Climate change caused by the continuous increase of carbon emissions is a global problem which is widely concerned by all countries and urgently needs to be solved.As the main source of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China,energy-intensive industries are key participants in the realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,China’s energy-intensive industries are under great pressure to reduce emissions,and the lack of vegetation area leads to a decline in green carbon sequestration capacity,further exacerbating the imbalance between carbon sources and carbon sinks.Considering the current situation of carbon emission reduction in China and the complexity of macro-control,it is necessary to set an accurate "carbon pressure" index to measure the carbon pressure of carbon emission from energy-intensive industries on China’s carbon balance,and further analyze the "carbon pressure" peak of six energy-intensive industries by studying its influencing factors.In this way,differentiated emission reduction policies are formulated to help achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.In this paper.firstly,the concept of regional carbon pressure was used to fully consider the influence of carbon sink,and the "carbon pressure" of energy-intensive industries was set to reflect the negative impact of the changes of carbon emissions in energy-intensive industries on the "carbon balance" of the whole ecosystem of our country.Based on the carbon emission data of energy consuming industries from 2001 to 2020,the fluctuation and evolution characteristics of "carbon pressure" in six energy consuming industries were calculated and described.It was found that the overall "carbon pressure" of energy-intensive industries showed a trend of rising first and then stable fluctuation.The fluctuation trend of "carbon pressure" in the six industries was divided into three categories:"two-stage growth type","stable growth type" and "singlepeak type".Secondly,the EMD was introduced to reveal the two dimensions of "carbon pressure" in energy-intensive industries and analyzed the effects of long-term driving and shortterm volatility of the influencing factors.Based on the extended KAYA identity and LMDI,the influential factors of "carbon pressure" in six energy-intensive industries were decomposed to explore the differences in the effects of emission intensity(CE).energy intensity(EI),industrial structure(GS),economic scale(GP)and carbon sequetion scale(PCA).It was found that GP mainly played a positive driving effect.CE.El and PCA mainly played an inhibitory effect,and GS had a great difference in driving effect for different industries.The contribution degree of GP was larger,while that of PCA was smaller.Then,the Tapio decoupling index was used to study the decoupling relationship between the core factor GP and the "carbon pressure" in six energy-intensive industries,and the driving contribution of minor factors such as CE,EI,GS and PCA to the decoupling of the "carbon pressure" and the core factor GP was further analyzed.It was found that the economic development of six energy-intensive industries and the" carbon pressure" presented different decoupling states in different periods,and EI and PCA mainly promoted decoupling after the" 11th Five-Year Plan".Finally,based on the historical trend characteristics of "carbon pressure" in energy-intensive industries,combined with the influence of factors and the goal of the "14th Five-Year Plan",the multi-scenario simulation of "carbon pressure" in six energy-intensive industries was analyzed by using the EKC and STIRPAT combined model.It was found the "carbon pressure" of the six energy-intensive industries will all peak before 2030 according to the baseline scenario of the development of the 14th FiveYear Plan.Under low carbon and enhanced low carbon scenarios,the peak will be reached 1 to 2 years earlier.At the same time,the peak time of "carbon pressure" in six energy-intensive industries presented a three-stage gradient.This study set and calculated the "carbon pressure" of energy-consuming industries.Based on the classification and characterization of historical evolution characteristics,combined with the heterogeneity of driving effect of the change of "carbon pressure" caused by factors such as scale,intensity and structure,the peak of "carbon pressure" in energy-intensive industries was simulated and analyzed.It was suggested to adopt different preferences for policy implementation,so as to provide certain reference for the country to formulate appropriate and effective ow-carbon development policies for energy-intensive industries,and help realize the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.