The EKC Test Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And The Analysis Of Its Impact Factors

Global warming caused by carbon emissions has long attracted widespread attention.As a big agricultural country,China’s agricultural carbon emission problem has attracted much attention.Agriculture is one of the causes of greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,the agricultural emission reduction task is urgent.Agricultural carbon emission reduction is the key link and an important condition to realize the sustainable agricultural development.In order to effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions,the primary task is to analyze the changing law of agricultural carbon emissions and their causes.The Yangtze River Delta has the highest region of comprehensive technology level and the most developed economy and culture in China,so the research on carbon emissions caused by agriculture is very important.Based on this,it is of great significance to study the agricultural carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the study of agricultural sustainable development theory and environmental Kuznets theory,using the relevant agricultural data from 1995-2019,through the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method,and conducted the EKC test of the carbon emissions in the region,based on the LMDI model to analyze the influence factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the region.The results show that:(1)The total agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta experienced great ups and downs between 1995 and 2019,There are mainly three stages: Slow growth phase began in 1995-2002,sustained growth in 2003-2011,and decline in 2012-2019;from the overall trend,the carbon emissions of farmland utilization,crop cultivation and livestock breeding showed "up-down" trend in the past 25 years,with the largest carbon source being agricultural input,followed by crop cultivation and finally livestock and poultry breeding.(2)The relationship between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural GDP per capita shows an "inverted U" curve,which is an EKC relationship.The inflection point appeared in 2015.This means that with the continuous growth of agricultural per capita GDP,agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta change from rising stage to downward stage.(3)The LMDI model is used to decompose the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta and analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions.Among them,agricultural production efficiency is the primary reason to restrain the increase of agricultural carbon emissions,and the emission reduction effect is gradually enhanced.Agricultural labor force has also suppressed the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta.The development level of agricultural economy is the main reason for the increase of agricultural emissions in Yangtze River Delta,and the increasing effect increases gradually;the agricultural production structure on agricultural carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta;the total effect of the influencing factors peaked in 2015.On this basis,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)improve agricultural production efficiency;(2)optimize agricultural production structure;(3)help promote agricultural mechanization and scale;(4)change the way of agricultural resources input;(5)establish the concept of low-carbon circular development.