| When a destructive earthquake occurs,the assessment of on-site macro-intensity often requires a long time and a large-scale human,material and financial resources,and the ambiguity of the intensity assessment index and the subjectivity of the evaluators will cause certain errors in the assessment results.The strong motion time history records collected by the seismic station monitoring within the earthquake influence range can calculate the instrument intensity value in a relatively short time,and quickly and objectively evaluate the distribution of ground motion intensity and the damage degree of the surface near the seismic station,which can provide scientific data support for emergency rescue,decision-making and deployment after the earthquake.In this paper,firstly,the reliability of different instrumental intensity methods at home and abroad is compared and studied based on the 2008 Wenchuan ground motion time history records.Then,the spectral intensity algorithm is improved and optimized by comprehensively analyzing the three strong motion time history data of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan,and the spectral intensity contour map is drawn based on the Kriging interpolation method.Finally,a model of earthquake casualties and direct economic losses in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei rural areas based on the improved spectral intensity algorithm is proposed.The main work and achievements are as follows :(1)The principle and process of six kinds of intensity calculation methods at home and abroad,such as China seismic intensity table method,Shake Map method and Housner spectral intensity method,are introduced in detail.In this paper,the intensity values under different instrumental intensity algorithms are calculated by using the strong motion time history data obtained in Wenchuan earthquake.By comparing with the macro intensity obtained by field investigation,the reliability of various algorithms is verified.After comprehensive comparison,the spectral intensity algorithm with the smallest error rate and high reliability is finally selected as the basis of the following research.(2)In view of the shortcomings of the spectral intensity algorithm itself,an improved spectral intensity algorithm is proposed to establish a continuous function relationship between the ground motion acceleration time-history integral and the spectral intensity value.The spectral intensity contour map is drawn by using the strong motion observation data of the Ludian earthquake in 2014 and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method,and compared with the macro intensity map.The results show that the contour map obtained by the improved algorithm is consistent with the overall change trend of the macro intensity map,and has a good correspondence,which has certain reliability and accuracy.(3)Based on the data obtained from the vulnerability analysis of typical houses in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei rural residential areas,the relationship between rural residential vulnerability and economic loss ratio is studied,and the formula of rural residential vulnerability and construction value,decoration value and indoor physical property value loss ratio is established.This paper studies the relationship between the vulnerability of rural housing and the population casualty rate,analyzes the characteristics of population age and dynamic distribution,and establishes the formula of casualties based on time dynamic change between the vulnerability of rural housing and the distribution of different ages.(4)Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example,based on the improved spectral intensity algorithm,the simulated ground motion time history data is used for calculation and analysis,and the corresponding spectral intensity distribution map is drawn.By using the post-disaster casualties and direct economic loss model for calculation,the economic loss is finally obtained.Fine data and distribution maps,fine data and distribution maps for casualties assessment. |
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