Measuring the perception of scarcity of the veneer log resource in the Lake States, Illinois, and Indiana

Forest Industry professionals, have expressed concern about physical scarcity and diminishing quality in veneer logs of the preferred species' contradicting USDA Forest Service inventory results which report an expanding resource base. This study examined factors influencing economic supply of select white oak, select red oak, hard maple, ash, black cherry, and black walnut veneer logs in the Lake States, Illinois, and Indiana. Increased competition due to international demand is placing additional pressure on available inventory. Changing demographics are acting to reduce supply as non-timber land uses increase in importance. Industry professionals were queried to quantify their perception of scarcity and determine which factors they consider most important. The dominant perception is that quality its decreasing. Profitable architectural and panel grade veneer logs are perceived to be diminishing while furniture grade veneer logs are not. Quantity is perceived to be decreasing in the large and medium diameter classes but increasing in the small diameter classes. Expectation is for future real prices ten years hence to increase between 20--30%. Factors for the perceived scarcity ranking highest in importance were increased international demand, previous high grading, landowner mistrust of loggers, and increased environmental regulations. Respondents agree that the world demand for eastern hardwoods is strong and will continue to grow.