The Impact Of Human Capital Dividend On Regional Technical Innovation Capability

This paper studies the direction and extent of the impact of human capital dividend on regional innovation ability when the demographic dividend is gradually weakening.Since the reform and openess,China’s economy has formed a cheaper labor market than developed countries because of its considerable labor supply,which has created tremendous space for the development of labor-intensive industries such as manufacturing industry,thus promoting the continuous high-speed growth of GDP for decades.However,in recent years,the birth rate and mortality rate have been declining continuously,the number of labor force population has been decreasing from a slower growth rate to a downhill decline.The increasingly serious aging problem implies that the era of economic development driven by the abundant demographic dividend has passed.China must adjust its structure and adopt a new development model as soon as possible.Under such social development needs and innovations,it’s important to prevent people from the "old before rich" situation,ensure the sustained activity of the market and avoid Economy to Fall into the "Middle Income Trap" that we should improve residents’ consumption power,promote consumption upgrading,change the direction of key investment,curb over-investment in risky industries,encourage enterprises to actively study technological innovation methods,upgrade production efficiency,provide entrepren-eurial environment for small and medium-ized enterprises,and adjust industrial structure.At the perspective of changing in demographic dividend,this paper divides human capital dividend into two categories: general human capital dividend and exclusive human capital dividend.Using panel data of 30 provinces from 1999 to 2017 for 19 years,and uses threshold regression model to study the impact of human capital dividend on regional innovation ability in terms of output and efficiency.Through empirical research,the final results are as follows:Firstly,Whether from the perspective of technological innovation output or technological innovation efficiency,the general human capital dividend has the most significant positive effect on regional innovation.Secondly,Professional technicians in the dividend of exclusive human capital have the most obvious change in promoting regional innovation ability.The demographic dividend has changedchanged from high level to low level,and the influence of professional technicians on innovation ability has changed from negative promotion to positive promotion.Thirdly,Compared with the high demographic dividend level,when the demographic dividend is at a low level,the stimulating effect of exclusive human capital dividend on innovation output and innovation efficiency will be strengthened,while the stimulating effect of universal human capital on innovation efficiency will be more obvious.