Investment Decision Analysis Of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project On A Roof In Guangzhou

Solar photovoltaic is a green renewable energy,With the promotion of Solar photovoltaic generation,it is conducive to protect the ecological environment and develop the green economy.Roof photovoltaic power generation is the main form of photovoltaic power generation in China,people are focus on its operation mode,investment income,policy support and so on.Firstly,this paper introduces the research background of the project,the principle of distributed photovoltaic power generation,the analysis of geographical lighting conditions,the government policy,the current research situation and the development trend at home and abroad.Secondly,based on quantitative analysis,based on financial data,the economic evaluation indicators are used to analyze the profitability of the project,including internal return rate,net present value,investment recovery period,total investment return rate,and net capital profit margin method.Interest rate,debt-service rate and loan repayment period are used to analyze the solvency of the project.Thirdly,the comprehensive benefit evaluation model is constructed,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector at all levels is calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP method)and the fuzzy evaluation method.The value of the comprehensive benefit evaluation of the project is 3.19,and the conclusion that the comprehensive benefit of the project is good is obtained,which proves that the project is feasible.At the same time,this paper constructs the project risk evaluation model,and the project risk was identified and evaluated by sensitivity analysis and expert scoring method.On the one hand,a single factor sensitivity analysis of the four main factors that affect investment return,the internal rate of return is greater than the benchmark rate of return when you know that the four factors increase or decrease by 10 % that demonstrate the project is operational.However,the investment unit price has the greatest impact on the internal return rate of project capital,that representing the investment unit price has a significant impact on the economy of distributed power generation projects.So we should control the cost of the project and save engineering costs.On the other hand,using the expert evaluation method to evaluate the weight and occurrence probability of 10 important risk content,that calculate the overall risk factor score of the project with a total score of 0.388.The risk of an investment project during the construction phase is considered to be a lower risk and can be implemented.At the same time,the risk factors are ranked to obtain important risks,secondary risks,and non-secondary risks,In order to carry out key precautions in the subsequent construction and construction process.This project adopts the measures of risk avoidance,risk control,risk transfer and risk retention to strengthen the management of project risk.Finally,the author verifies the feasibility and application significance of building the roof distributed photovoltaic power generation project in Guangzhou in the general area of solar energy resources,and provides reference for the same type of projects.